# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260207-133151
**Date:** Jan 28, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** REASON-003

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## Question

Estimate how many piano tuners there are in Chicago. Show your reasoning step by step, including:
1. All assumptions you make
2. How you derived each number
3. Sensitivity analysis (what if your assumptions are wrong?)
4. Final estimate with confidence interval

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## Winner

**Claude Opus 4.5** (Anthropic)
- Winner Score: 9.52
- Matrix Average: 8.94
- Total Judgments: 90

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | Claude Opus 4.5 | Anthropic | 9.52 | 8 |
| 2 | GPT-OSS-120B | OpenAI | 9.50 | 7 |
| 3 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | Anthropic | 9.34 | 7 |
| 4 | Grok 3 (Direct) | xAI | 9.29 | 7 |
| 5 | Gemini 3 Flash Preview | Google | 9.28 | 8 |
| 6 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Xiaomi | 9.24 | 9 |
| 7 | DeepSeek V3.2 | DeepSeek | 9.22 | 7 |
| 8 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | Google | 8.92 | 7 |
| 9 | OLMo Think | Allen AI | 7.87 | 3 |
| 10 | Gemini 3 Pro Preview | Google | 7.25 | 3 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | GPT-OSS-120B | Claude Sonnet | MiMo-V2-Flash | Gemini 3 | DeepSeek V3.2 | Claude Opus | Gemini 3 | Gemini 2.5 | OLMo Think | Grok 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-120B | — | 9.2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 8.8 |
| Claude Sonnet | 9.6 | — | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 9.4 |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 9.6 | 9.6 | — | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 9.6 |
| Gemini 3 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | — | 9.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 9.8 |
| DeepSeek V3.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | — | 9.4 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 9.4 |
| Claude Opus | 9.4 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.4 | — | 0.0 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 9.0 |
| Gemini 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gemini 2.5 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 7.5 | — | 7.5 | 9.0 |
| OLMo Think | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0.0 |
| Grok 3 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: REASON-003. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260207-133151/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export