{
  "evaluation_id": "EVAL-20260315-063934",
  "question_id": "EVAL-20260315-063934",
  "question_text": "During WWII, analysts studied bullet holes on returning bombers to decide where to add armor. They found most damage on the wings and fuselage, almost none on the engines. Their recommendation: armor the wings. Abraham Wald disagreed. (1) What was Wald's reasoning? (2) Give 5 modern examples of survivorship bias in business/tech. (3) 'We studied 100 successful startups and found they all did X.' Why is this analysis worthless without a control group?",
  "category": "reasoning",
  "timestamp": "2026-03-15T06:39:34.285Z",
  "display_date": "Mar 15, 2026",
  "winner": {
    "name": "Kimi K2.5",
    "provider": "openrouter",
    "score": 9.63
  },
  "avg_score": 9.111,
  "matrix_size": 85,
  "models_used": [
    {
      "id": "kimi_k25",
      "name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "devstral",
      "name": "Devstral Small",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "gemma3_27b",
      "name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "llama4_scout",
      "name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "phi4",
      "name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "granite_40",
      "name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen3_8b",
      "name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral_nemo",
      "name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "llama31_8b",
      "name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen3_32b",
      "name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    }
  ],
  "rankings": {
    "kimi_k25": {
      "display_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.63,
      "score_count": 9,
      "min_score": 8.65,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 1
    },
    "qwen3_32b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.55,
      "score_count": 8,
      "min_score": 8.4,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 2
    },
    "qwen3_8b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.51,
      "score_count": 9,
      "min_score": 8.8,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 3
    },
    "gemma3_27b": {
      "display_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.51,
      "score_count": 8,
      "min_score": 8.8,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 4
    },
    "devstral": {
      "display_name": "Devstral Small",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.24,
      "score_count": 8,
      "min_score": 8.25,
      "max_score": 9.8,
      "rank": 5
    },
    "mistral_nemo": {
      "display_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.18,
      "score_count": 9,
      "min_score": 7.4,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 6
    },
    "llama4_scout": {
      "display_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.16,
      "score_count": 8,
      "min_score": 8.25,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 7
    },
    "phi4": {
      "display_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.13,
      "score_count": 8,
      "min_score": 8.4,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 8
    },
    "granite_40": {
      "display_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 8.17,
      "score_count": 9,
      "min_score": 3.6,
      "max_score": 9.45,
      "rank": 9
    },
    "llama31_8b": {
      "display_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 8.03,
      "score_count": 9,
      "min_score": 4.4,
      "max_score": 9.45,
      "rank": 10
    }
  },
  "judgments": [
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly addresses all three parts of the question, and presents the material in a clear, structured manner. It provides insightful analysis of Wald's reasoning and offers five well-explained modern examples of survivorship bias, as well as a detailed explanation of why control groups are essential for meaningful analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias reasoning, provides valid modern examples, and clearly addresses the control group issue. Examples are varied but could include more nuanced real-world contexts for greater depth."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 8.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning about survivorship bias in WWII bombers and provides five relevant modern business/tech examples. It clearly addresses the control group issue by highlighting correlation vs. causation and selection bias. Minor improvements could include more concise phrasing in the third section."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides valid modern examples of survivorship bias, and correctly identifies the flaws in the startup analysis. It is clear and structured but lacks deeper methodological insights in the third section."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 9,
      "brief_justification": "The response correctly explains Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias, provides five relevant modern examples in business/tech, and clearly addresses the importance of a control group. It is well-structured and insightful, though slightly more depth could be added to the modern examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 7.75,
      "brief_justification": "The response correctly identifies Wald's survivorship bias insight but misstates his recommendation (he suggested armor for the engines, not the wings/fuselage). The modern examples are mostly valid but include a duplicate. The control group explanation is accurate and clear."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias insight, provides 5 clear modern examples, and thoroughly analyzes the control group issue with logical reasoning. It is factually precise, comprehensive, and offers actionable insights."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 8.65,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly addresses the control group issue. While the examples in (2) are valid, some could be more specific. The analysis in (3) is logically sound but lacks deeper statistical nuance."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 8.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias, provides clear examples, and addresses the control group issue. However, the examples of survivorship bias are somewhat generic and lack specific real-world context, limiting depth. The structure is logical but could benefit from more nuanced analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "kimi_k25",
      "judge_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 3.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response fatally misrepresents Wald's conclusion, incorrectly stating he recommended armoring the wings/fuselage rather than the engines (the opposite of his actual argument). Part (2) contains a verbatim duplicate example, and the analysis throughout remains superficial with logical inconsistencies."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "kimi_k25",
      "judge_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's insight about survivorship bias in WWII bombers, provides five relevant modern business/tech examples, and correctly identifies the necessity of control groups to distinguish correlation from causation. The reasoning is logically sound, well-structured, and demonstrates strong understanding of selection bias and statistical validity."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "kimi_k25",
      "judge_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 7.4,
      "brief_justification": "Parts 1 and 3 accurately explain Wald's reasoning and control group necessity, but Part 2's examples largely confuse survivorship bias (ignoring failed attempts) with business model differentiation (comparing different types of successes), failing to identify the essential 'missing failures' that define the bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "kimi_k25",
      "judge_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 4.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response contains a critical factual error regarding Wald's reasoning (incorrectly stating engines were non-critical/survivable areas when they were actually the critical areas where hits caused planes to crash). The 5 examples are repetitive and generic, lacking specific business/tech contexts, and the explanation of control groups misses the essential statistical concept of comparing base rates between successful and failed populations."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly covers the topic, is clearly structured, provides insightful analysis, and offers practical value."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thorough, well-structured, insightful, and highly practical."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly covers the topic, is clearly structured, provides insightful analysis, and offers practical value."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 9.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly covers the topic, is well-structured, provides insightful analysis, and offers practical value."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 9.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Abraham Wald's reasoning, provides clear and relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and effectively explains the importance of a control group in analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 9.05,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias. It also clearly explains the importance of a control group in startup analysis. The repetition of the fifth example slightly reduces completeness."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly covers the topic, is well-structured, provides insightful analysis, and offers practical value with actionable examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly covers the topic, is clear and well-structured, provides insightful analysis, and offers practical value with actionable examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "devstral",
      "judge_name": "Devstral Small",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains survivorship bias, Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and emphasizes the importance of a control group. It is well-structured and insightful, with practical value for understanding and avoiding survivorship bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides excellent and relevant modern examples, and clearly articulates why the startup analysis is flawed without a control group. The depth of explanation is strong, and the response is highly practical and insightful."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response perfectly answers all parts of the question with clear explanations and relevant, insightful examples. It demonstrates a strong understanding of survivorship bias and its implications."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 9.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant, understandable examples of survivorship bias. The explanation of the control group's importance is also clear and concise, though the depth could be slightly increased with more nuanced examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides excellent, relevant modern examples of survivorship bias. The explanation regarding the need for a control group is thorough and well-articulated."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant and diverse modern examples, and clearly articulates the importance of a control group, demonstrating a strong understanding of survivorship bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 9.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant, understandable examples of survivorship bias. The explanation of the control group's necessity is also clear and concise, though the examples are somewhat repetitive."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides excellent and relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly articulates why a control group is essential for valid analysis. The depth of explanation is strong, though could be slightly increased with statistical nuance."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides excellent, relevant modern examples of survivorship bias. The explanation regarding the control group is also clear, concise, and insightful."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "judge_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains survivorship bias, Wald's reasoning, and provides relevant modern examples. The explanation of the control group's importance is also clear and concise, though the depth could be increased with more nuanced examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately identifies Abraham Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly explains the importance of a control group in analyzing startup success factors."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly articulates why a control group is necessary to draw meaningful conclusions. The analysis is thorough, well-structured, and offers practical insights."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 9.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Abraham Wald's reasoning and provides relevant examples of survivorship bias. It also clearly explains the importance of a control group in analyzing startup success. The response could be improved by providing more nuanced examples or deeper analysis of the survivorship bias examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately addresses all parts of the question, providing clear explanations and relevant examples. It thoroughly covers the topic of survivorship bias, its implications, and provides practical examples, making it highly useful and insightful."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately describes Abraham Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and explains the importance of a control group in analysis. The explanation is clear, thorough, and offers practical insights."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 8.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Abraham Wald's reasoning and provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, while also clearly explaining the importance of a control group in analyzing startup success."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately describes Abraham Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly explains why the analysis without a control group is worthless. The explanations are thorough, well-structured, and offer practical insights."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately describes Abraham Wald's reasoning and provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias in business/tech. It also clearly explains the importance of a control group in analyzing startup success factors."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama4_scout",
      "judge_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 8.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately describes survivorship bias, Abraham Wald's reasoning, and provides relevant modern examples. It also clearly explains the importance of a control group in avoiding survivorship bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains survivorship bias using Wald's reasoning during WWII, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly articulates why the analysis of successful startups without a control group is flawed. It covers all aspects of the question thoroughly, offering practical insights into avoiding survivorship bias in business and tech contexts."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 9.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides clear examples of survivorship bias in modern contexts. It thoroughly covers the topic and offers practical insights into how survivorship bias can affect business and tech analyses, emphasizing the importance of control groups in research."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 9.65,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant examples of survivorship bias, and clearly outlines the importance of a control group in research. It is thorough, clear, and insightful, with practical implications for understanding bias in analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains survivorship bias and provides relevant modern examples, demonstrating a clear understanding of the concept. It also effectively explains why analyzing successful startups without a control group is flawed, highlighting the importance of considering unsuccessful cases to avoid spurious correlations and selection bias. The response is factually correct, complete, clear, and provides useful insights into the implications of survivorship bias in business and tech co"
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response correctly identifies and explains Abraham Wald's reasoning regarding survivorship bias in WWII bomber analysis, providing a clear and accurate explanation. It also offers relevant modern examples of survivorship bias in business and technology, effectively illustrating the concept. The explanation about the need for a control group in studies of successful startups highlights the importance of avoiding bias and ensuring meaningful analysis, making the response both insightful and pr"
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 8.95,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning regarding survivorship bias, provides relevant modern examples, and highlights the importance of control groups in avoiding biased analysis. The explanation is clear and structured, offering practical insights into how survivorship bias affects business and tech analyses."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response correctly identifies Abraham Wald's reasoning regarding survivorship bias, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias in business and tech, and explains why an analysis without a control group is flawed due to survivorship bias. It offers a comprehensive and clear explanation of the concept and its implications, making it highly insightful and practical."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 9.65,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias. The explanation of the importance of a control group is thorough and insightful, though slightly less actionable."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "phi4",
      "judge_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 8.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant examples of survivorship bias, but could include more depth in the examples and a more explicit explanation of control groups."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 8.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly articulates why control groups are essential in comparative analyses, with minor minor depth due to brevity."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 8.65,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern survivorship bias examples, and clearly articulates why a control group is essential in the startup analysis, with minor minor depth limitation in the examples section."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 8.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly articulates why a control group is essential in the startup analysis, though it could delve deeper into the statistical implications of survivorship bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 8.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of bias, and clearly articulates why a control group is essential in the startup analysis, with minor minor depth limitation due to brevity."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 8.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and correctly identifies the flaw in the startup analysis without a control group, though depth could be improved by offering more nuanced insights."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 8.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly articulates why a control group is essential in analysis, with minor minor omissions in depth and completeness."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 8.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of bias, and clearly illustrates why a control group is essential in the startup analysis, with minor omission of nuance in depth."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 8.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern survivorship bias examples, and clearly articulates why a control group is essential in startup analysis, with minor minor depth limitation due to brevity."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "granite_40",
      "judge_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 8.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly explains why a control group is essential, demonstrating strong correctness, completeness, clarity, and usefulness while showing moderate depth."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and thoroughly addresses the control group necessity with clear explanations."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides comprehensive modern examples of survivorship bias, and thoroughly addresses the control group necessity with logical scenarios. All criteria are met with precision and practical relevance."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly addresses the control group necessity. It is well-structured and directly answers all parts of the question with practical insights."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and thoroughly addresses the control group necessity with clear explanations. All criteria are met with precision and depth."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 8.85,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly addresses the control group necessity. Examples are practical but somewhat generic."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 8.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly addresses the control group necessity. It is well-structured but lacks deeper analysis in some areas."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 8.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias examples, but repeats examples (startups and product launches) which slightly reduces completeness. The control group explanation is clear and correct."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately addresses all parts of the question with clear examples and logical explanations. The examples for survivorship bias are valid but could include more varied or specific cases. The control group explanation is thorough and actionable."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 8.5,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias concepts, provides valid modern examples, and correctly addresses the control group necessity. However, the examples lack specific depth and actionable insights."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 8.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant examples, and clearly outlines the importance of control groups. It could have mentioned more about the statistical implications of lacking a control group for a more complete analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly explains the importance of control groups. It is well-structured, insightful, and practically useful. The only minor deduction is for completeness, as one could argue for more examples or a deeper dive into the implications of survivorship bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 9.05,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly explains the importance of control groups. It could have provided more depth by discussing potential solutions to survivorship bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 9.05,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly explains the importance of control groups. It is well-structured and insightful, with only minor room for improvement in clarity."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 8.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant modern examples. However, it could delve deeper into the underlying statistical principles and the consequences of survivorship bias in decision-making. The final point about the need for control groups is well-made but could be more explicitly tied to the initial example."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 8.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Abraham Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly explains the importance of control groups. It could have included more examples for completeness, but overall, it's a well-structured and useful explanation."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 8.5,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning (10/10), provides relevant modern examples (8/10), and offers a clear explanation of the importance of control groups (8/10). However, it could delve deeper into the implications of survivorship bias and provide more unique examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.05,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly explains the importance of control groups. It's insightful but could delve a bit deeper into the consequences of survivorship bias."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "judge_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "respondent_key": "llama31_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "weighted_score": 7.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains survivorship bias and Wald's reasoning, but some examples could be more detailed. It clearly communicates the importance of control groups, but lacks deeper analysis on the implications of survivorship bias in decision-making."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 9.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides clear examples of survivorship bias in business and tech, and effectively argues for the importance of control groups in analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "kimi_k25",
      "respondent_name": "Kimi K2.5",
      "weighted_score": 9.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains survivorship bias, provides clear examples, and highlights the importance of control groups in analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "devstral",
      "respondent_name": "Devstral Small",
      "weighted_score": 9.05,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides clear examples of survivorship bias, but could benefit from more in-depth analysis and real-world applications."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "gemma3_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Gemma 3 27B",
      "weighted_score": 9.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides 5 clear examples of survivorship bias, and effectively explains why a control group is necessary to draw meaningful conclusions."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "llama4_scout",
      "respondent_name": "Llama 4 Scout",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides 5 relevant examples of survivorship bias, and correctly identifies the limitation of the analysis without a control group."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "phi4",
      "respondent_name": "Phi-4 14B",
      "weighted_score": 9.05,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately and thoroughly explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant examples of survivorship bias, and effectively highlights the importance of a control group in analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "granite_40",
      "respondent_name": "Granite 4.0 Micro",
      "weighted_score": 9.05,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant examples of survivorship bias, and correctly identifies the limitations of the analysis without a control group."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains survivorship bias, provides relevant examples, and clearly explains the importance of a control group in avoiding correlation vs. causation."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "llama31_8b",
      "judge_name": "Llama 3.1 8B",
      "respondent_key": "mistral_nemo",
      "respondent_name": "Mistral Nemo 12B",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately and thoroughly explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant and insightful examples of survivorship bias, and clearly explains the importance of a control group in analysis."
    }
  ],
  "meta": {
    "source": "The Multivac (app.themultivac.com)",
    "methodology": "10x10 blind peer matrix evaluation",
    "criteria": "correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness",
    "self_judgments": "excluded from rankings",
    "license": "Open data — cite as: The Multivac (2026)"
  }
}