# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260317-023315
**Date:** Mar 17, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** EVAL-20260317-023315

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## Question

A disease affects 1 in 10,000 people. A test is 99% sensitive (true positive rate) and 99.5% specific (true negative rate). A patient tests positive. (1) What is the probability they have the disease? (2) If they test positive twice with independent tests, what is the probability? (3) A doctor says 'You tested positive, so you almost certainly have it.' Critique this reasoning. (4) Design a testing protocol that achieves >95% positive predictive value.

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## Winner

**Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B** (openrouter)
- Winner Score: 10.00
- Matrix Average: 9.80
- Total Judgments: 24

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B | openrouter | 10.00 | 4 |
| 2 | Qwen 3 8B | openrouter | 9.92 | 5 |
| 3 | Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B | openrouter | 9.85 | 6 |
| 4 | Qwen 3.5 27B | openrouter | 9.85 | 5 |
| 5 | Qwen 3 Coder Next | openrouter | 9.36 | 4 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | Qwen 3 8B | Qwen 3 32B | Qwen 3 | Qwen 3.5 27B | Qwen 3.5 | Qwen 3.5 | Qwen 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen 3 8B | — | · | 9.6 | 9.3 | · | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3 32B | 9.8 | — | 10.0 | 10.0 | · | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3 | 10.0 | · | — | 10.0 | · | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 27B | 10.0 | · | 9.2 | — | · | · | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 | 9.8 | · | 8.7 | 10.0 | — | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| Qwen 3.5 | 10.0 | · | · | 10.0 | · | — | 9.8 |
| Qwen 3.5 | · | · | · | · | · | · | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: EVAL-20260317-023315. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260317-023315/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export