# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260317-025517
**Date:** Mar 17, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** EVAL-20260317-025517

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## Question

You must choose between three investments. Investment A returns 10% with 90% probability, -50% with 10% probability. Investment B returns 5% with certainty. Investment C returns 100% with 20% probability, 0% with 80% probability. (1) Rank them by expected value. (2) Rank them by the Kelly criterion. (3) You have $10,000 your entire savings. Does this change your answer? Why? (4) Now you have $10,000,000. Does it change again? Derive the general principle.

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## Winner

**Qwen 3.5 27B** (openrouter)
- Winner Score: 9.96
- Matrix Average: 8.86
- Total Judgments: 22

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | Qwen 3.5 27B | openrouter | 9.96 | 5 |
| 2 | Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B | openrouter | 9.95 | 4 |
| 3 | Qwen 3 32B | openrouter | 9.56 | 4 |
| 4 | Qwen 3 8B | openrouter | 8.33 | 3 |
| 5 | Qwen 3 Coder Next | openrouter | 6.49 | 6 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | Qwen 3 8B | Qwen 3 32B | Qwen 3 | Qwen 3.5 | Qwen 3.5 27B | Qwen 3.5 | Qwen 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen 3 8B | — | 10.0 | 9.3 | · | 10.0 | · | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3 32B | 7.0 | — | 7.9 | · | 10.0 | · | · |
| Qwen 3 | 8.2 | 10.0 | — | · | 10.0 | · | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 | · | · | 5.5 | — | 9.8 | · | · |
| Qwen 3.5 27B | · | · | 5.3 | · | — | · | 9.8 |
| Qwen 3.5 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 5.1 | · | · | — | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 | · | 8.4 | 5.8 | · | 10.0 | · | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: EVAL-20260317-025517. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260317-025517/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export