{
  "evaluation_id": "EVAL-20260317-030901",
  "question_id": "EVAL-20260317-030901",
  "question_text": "During WWII, analysts studied bullet holes on returning bombers to decide where to add armor. They found most damage on the wings and fuselage, almost none on the engines. Their recommendation: armor the wings. Abraham Wald disagreed. (1) What was Wald's reasoning? (2) Give 5 modern examples of survivorship bias in business/tech. (3) 'We studied 100 successful startups and found they all did X.' Why is this analysis worthless without a control group?",
  "category": "reasoning",
  "timestamp": "2026-03-17T03:09:01.551Z",
  "display_date": "Mar 17, 2026",
  "winner": {
    "name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
    "provider": "openrouter",
    "score": 9.95
  },
  "avg_score": 9.02125,
  "matrix_size": 39,
  "models_used": [
    {
      "id": "qwen35_9b",
      "name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen3_32b",
      "name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen35_27b",
      "name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen3_8b",
      "name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "provider": "openrouter"
    }
  ],
  "rankings": {
    "qwen35_397b_a17b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.95,
      "score_count": 4,
      "min_score": 9.8,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 1
    },
    "qwen3_32b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.9,
      "score_count": 4,
      "min_score": 9.8,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 2
    },
    "qwen3_coder_next": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.85,
      "score_count": 4,
      "min_score": 9.6,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 3
    },
    "qwen35_122b_a10b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.81,
      "score_count": 5,
      "min_score": 9.25,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 4
    },
    "qwen3_8b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 9.8,
      "score_count": 5,
      "min_score": 9.6,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 5
    },
    "qwen35_35b_a3b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 7.76,
      "score_count": 6,
      "min_score": 5.45,
      "max_score": 10,
      "rank": 6
    },
    "qwen35_27b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 7.62,
      "score_count": 5,
      "min_score": 5.65,
      "max_score": 9.6,
      "rank": 7
    },
    "qwen35_9b": {
      "display_name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "provider": "openrouter",
      "average_score": 7.48,
      "score_count": 6,
      "min_score": 5.25,
      "max_score": 9.6,
      "rank": 8
    }
  },
  "judgments": [
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_9b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "weighted_score": 9,
      "brief_justification": "Answers are factually accurate and well-structured, with thorough examples. Part (3) is cut off, slightly reducing completeness and correctness."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly explains the necessity of control groups. It is well-structured and practical, though the depth of analysis could be slightly more nuanced in some examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "weighted_score": 9.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly addresses the control group necessity. Minor depth could be added to examples, but overall it's thorough and actionable."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "weighted_score": 8.65,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant examples of survivorship bias. The third part is cut off, reducing completeness and correctness slightly."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "weighted_score": 8.15,
      "brief_justification": "The response correctly addresses parts 1 and 2 with accurate explanations and relevant examples, but misses part 3 about control groups, reducing completeness and correctness."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "weighted_score": 9.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and thoroughly addresses the control group issue. It is well-structured and practical but could include slightly deeper analysis in some areas."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides thorough modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly demonstrates why control groups are essential for valid analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_9b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "weighted_score": 8.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides four strong modern examples of survivorship bias, though the fifth example is incomplete. The analysis of the startup study is correct but could elaborate further on causal inference limitations. Clarity and structure are strong, with actionable insights for avoiding biased conclusions."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and clearly addresses the control group issue. It is well-structured, actionable, and demonstrates strong analytical depth without unnecessary complexity."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly addresses all three parts of the question, and explains concepts with clarity and depth. It provides concrete modern examples of survivorship bias and clearly articulates why control groups are necessary for meaningful analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "weighted_score": 8.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning about survivorship bias in WWII bombers and provides five relevant modern business/tech examples. However, the third section is cut off mid-sentence, reducing completeness. The explanation of survivorship bias is clear and insightful, though the startup example's conclusion lacks elaboration."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "weighted_score": 8.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides five relevant modern examples of survivorship bias. However, the third question's explanation is cut off mid-sentence, reducing completeness. The examples are clear and practical, though the final example's abrupt ending slightly impacts thoroughness."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, thoroughly addresses all three parts of the question with well-structured explanations, and provides insightful examples and analysis. It clearly explains Wald's reasoning, offers five relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and logically breaks down why the startup analysis is flawed without a control group."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias insight, provides five well-structured modern business/tech examples, and thoroughly addresses the control group issue with clear logical reasoning and practical scenarios. All criteria are met with precision and depth."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_9b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "weighted_score": 9.6,
      "brief_justification": "The explanation of Wald's reasoning is factually precise and captures the core insight of survivorship bias. The five examples are highly relevant, well-articulated, and modern; only the last example is slightly cut off mid-sentence, slightly reducing completeness. Otherwise, the response is clear, insightful, and highly actionable."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald’s reasoning, provides five well-chosen, distinct modern examples of survivorship bias in business/tech, and clearly articulates why the startup analysis is flawed without a control group—highlighting causality, confounding variables, and the necessity of comparative analysis."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides five well-chosen modern examples of survivorship bias with clear relevance to business/tech, and correctly identifies the flaw in the startup analysis without a control group—emphasizing the need for causal inference. It is thorough, logically structured, and highly actionable."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides five well-chosen, detailed modern examples of survivorship bias in business/tech, and clearly articulates why the startup analysis lacks causal validity without a control group—demonstrating deep understanding and practical relevance."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "weighted_score": 9.6,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald’s insight about missing data and survivorship bias, provides five well-chosen, modern examples with clear reasoning, and implicitly answers part (3) by highlighting the need for a control group (e.g., studying failed startups too). The only minor shortcoming is that part (3) is not explicitly addressed in a standalone answer, though the logic is embedded in the examples."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald’s reasoning, provides five well-chosen, realistic modern examples of survivorship bias with clear explanations, and thoroughly unpacks why the startup analysis is flawed without a control group—demonstrating deep statistical insight and practical relevance."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias insight, provides five well-reasoned, distinct modern examples with clear mechanisms of bias, and rigorously explains why a control group is essential using probabilistic reasoning—demonstrating deep understanding and practical relevance."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides five relevant modern examples of survivorship bias. It clearly articulates the statistical necessity of a control group for establishing causality, making it highly useful and easy to follow."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_9b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "weighted_score": 6.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides clear examples, but it completely fails to answer the third question about control groups and cuts off mid-sentence on the final example."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides five distinct modern examples, and clearly articulates the statistical necessity of a control group to establish causality. The structure is clean, factual, and directly addresses all parts of the prompt."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "weighted_score": 5.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response demonstrates strong understanding of Wald's reasoning and provides clear examples, but it fails completely on the third question due to an abrupt text cutoff. This truncation renders the response incomplete and significantly reduces its practical utility for the user."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately details Abraham Wald's reasoning regarding missing data and provides five distinct, relevant modern examples. It also offers a statistically sound explanation for the necessity of a control group to establish causality."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_9b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "weighted_score": 5.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately details Wald's reasoning but fails to address the third question entirely and cuts off mid-sentence in the fifth example, resulting in significant incompleteness."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate and comprehensively addresses all three parts of the prompt with clear structure and relevant examples. The inclusion of a numerical counterfactual in the third section adds significant analytical depth beyond a standard definition."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate and thoroughly addresses all three parts of the prompt with relevant examples. The explanation of survivorship bias and control groups is logically sound and clearly articulated."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "weighted_score": 6.4,
      "brief_justification": "The content provided is factually accurate and well-structured, but the response truncates mid-sentence in the final section, failing to answer the third part of the prompt."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "weighted_score": 5.65,
      "brief_justification": "The factual content provided is accurate, but the response fails to answer the third question entirely and cuts off mid-sentence in the second section. This significantly reduces the completeness and practical utility of the answer."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's counter-intuitive logic and provides five distinct, relevant modern examples. It also clearly articulates the statistical necessity of control groups using illustrative scenarios."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_9b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 9B",
      "weighted_score": 6.4,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately addresses the first two parts but cuts off mid-sentence and entirely omits the third required question about control groups."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_8b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 8B",
      "weighted_score": 9.8,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately details Wald's reasoning and provides five distinct, relevant examples of survivorship bias. It clearly explains the statistical necessity of a control group to establish causality rather than correlation."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_32b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 32B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually precise, fully addresses all three prompt requirements with relevant examples, and explains statistical concepts with exceptional clarity and practical illustrations."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen3_coder_next",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3 Coder Next",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, covers all prompt requirements thoroughly, and is exceptionally well-structured. It provides insightful examples and a clear statistical explanation for the control group necessity."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_35b_a3b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B",
      "weighted_score": 7.45,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate and well-structured for the first two sections, but it fails completely on the third question due to an abrupt mid-sentence cutoff."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_27b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 27B",
      "weighted_score": 6.25,
      "brief_justification": "The response accurately explains Wald's reasoning and provides relevant examples, but it completely omits the third question and cuts off mid-sentence in the second section."
    },
    {
      "judge_key": "qwen35_397b_a17b",
      "judge_name": "Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B",
      "respondent_key": "qwen35_122b_a10b",
      "respondent_name": "Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B",
      "weighted_score": 10,
      "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate and thoroughly addresses all three parts of the prompt with clear structure. It provides insightful, relevant examples and correctly explains the statistical necessity of a control group."
    }
  ],
  "meta": {
    "source": "The Multivac (app.themultivac.com)",
    "methodology": "10x10 blind peer matrix evaluation",
    "criteria": "correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness",
    "self_judgments": "excluded from rankings",
    "license": "Open data — cite as: The Multivac (2026)"
  }
}