# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260318-163203
**Date:** Mar 18, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** EVAL-20260318-163203

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## Question

You must choose between three investments. Investment A returns 10% with 90% probability, -50% with 10% probability. Investment B returns 5% with certainty. Investment C returns 100% with 20% probability, 0% with 80% probability. (1) Rank them by expected value. (2) Rank them by the Kelly criterion. (3) You have $10,000 your entire savings. Does this change your answer? Why? (4) Now you have $10,000,000. Does it change again? Derive the general principle.

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## Winner

**GPT-5.4** (openrouter)
- Winner Score: 9.71
- Matrix Average: 8.79
- Total Judgments: 21

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | GPT-5.4 | openrouter | 9.71 | 7 |
| 2 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | openrouter | 9.42 | 7 |
| 3 | MiniMax-01 | openrouter | 7.24 | 7 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | MiniMax M2.7 | MiniMax M2.5 | MiniMax M2.1 | MiniMax M2 | MiniMax M1 | MiniMax-01 | Claude Sonnet | GPT-5.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiniMax M2.7 | — | · | · | · | · | 9.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | · | — | · | · | · | 7.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M2.1 | · | · | — | · | · | 9.0 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| MiniMax M2 | · | · | · | — | · | 8.3 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M1 | · | · | · | · | — | 7.0 | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| MiniMax-01 | · | · | · | · | · | — | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| Claude Sonnet | · | · | · | · | · | 5.8 | — | 8.8 |
| GPT-5.4 | · | · | · | · | · | 4.3 | 7.6 | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: EVAL-20260318-163203. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260318-163203/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export