# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260402-154959
**Date:** Feb 11, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** REASON-005

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## Question

A variant of the Monty Hall problem:

There are 100 doors. Behind one is a car, behind the others are goats. You pick door #1. The host, who knows where the car is, then opens 98 doors that don't have the car (and aren't your door), leaving door #1 (yours) and door #57.

1. What's the probability the car is behind door #57?
2. Should you switch?
3. Now suppose after opening 98 doors, the host offers you $10,000 to NOT switch. At what car value would you be indifferent?
4. What if the host doesn't know where the car is and just happened to open 98 goat doors by chance? Does this change your answer?

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## Winner

**GPT-5.4** (openrouter)
- Winner Score: 9.38
- Matrix Average: 8.32
- Total Judgments: 71

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | GPT-5.4 | openrouter | 9.38 | 9 |
| 2 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Xiaomi | 9.13 | 9 |
| 3 | DeepSeek V4 | openrouter | 9.04 | 9 |
| 4 | Claude Opus 4.6 | openrouter | 9.03 | 8 |
| 5 | Grok 4.20 | openrouter | 8.92 | 8 |
| 6 | GPT-OSS-120B | OpenAI | 8.82 | 4 |
| 7 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | openrouter | 8.15 | 8 |
| 8 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | openrouter | 8.05 | 8 |
| 9 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | openrouter | 4.34 | 8 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Claude Sonnet | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-120B | — | · | 9.1 | · | · | 9.1 | · | 9.3 | · | · |
| Gemini 2.5 | 9.0 | — | 9.0 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.3 | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | — | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 | · |
| Claude Opus | · | 8.2 | 9.2 | — | 4.3 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.7 | · |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | · | 6.7 | 9.4 | 8.0 | — | 8.5 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 5.5 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | · | 5.2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 2.3 | — | 9.1 | 9.0 | 6.5 | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 8.8 | — | 8.8 | 8.6 | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 8.4 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | — | 9.0 | · |
| Claude Sonnet | · | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 8.8 | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | · | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 9.2 | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: REASON-005. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260402-154959/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export