# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260402-161326
**Date:** Mar 11, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** REASON-009

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## Question

A study finds that cities with more ice cream sales have higher crime rates.

1. List all plausible causal structures that could explain this correlation
2. For each structure, describe what intervention would test it
3. A politician proposes banning ice cream to reduce crime. Analyze this policy using causal reasoning.
4. Design a study that could distinguish between the causal hypotheses

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## Winner

No winner determined.

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | Grok 4.20 | openrouter | 9.01 | 6 |
| 2 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | openrouter | 8.93 | 6 |
| 3 | MiniMax M2.5 | openrouter | 8.93 | 5 |
| 4 | Claude Opus 4.6 | openrouter | 8.88 | 5 |
| 5 | GPT-5.4 | openrouter | 8.70 | 5 |
| 6 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Xiaomi | 8.50 | 6 |
| 7 | DeepSeek V4 | openrouter | 8.45 | 5 |
| 8 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | openrouter | 8.15 | 5 |
| 9 | GPT-OSS-120B | OpenAI | 7.30 | 6 |
| 10 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | openrouter | 6.36 | 5 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | Gemini 3.1 Pro | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus | GPT-5.4 | Gemini 2.5 | MiniMax M2.5 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet | MiMo-V2-Flash | GPT-OSS-120B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | — | 8.1 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 6.8 |
| DeepSeek V4 | 8.4 | — | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| Claude Opus | 6.0 | 8.4 | — | 8.8 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 6.8 |
| GPT-5.4 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 8.2 | — | 7.2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 5.5 |
| Gemini 2.5 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 9.8 | — | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 8.1 | — | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 6.5 |
| Grok 4.20 | · | · | · | · | · | · | — | · | · | · |
| Claude Sonnet | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | — | · | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | — | · |
| GPT-OSS-120B | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: REASON-009. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260402-161326/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export