# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260402-165004
**Date:** Apr 02, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** REASON-016

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## Question

Hospital A has a higher survival rate than Hospital B for both heart surgery (A: 90%, B: 85%) and knee surgery (A: 95%, B: 92%). But Hospital B has a higher overall survival rate (B: 91%, A: 89%). (1) Construct exact numbers that produce this paradox. (2) Which hospital is actually better? (3) A health insurance company uses overall survival rate to recommend hospitals. What goes wrong? (4) How should the comparison be done correctly?

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## Winner

**Claude Sonnet 4.6** (openrouter)
- Winner Score: 9.44
- Matrix Average: 5.96
- Total Judgments: 70

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | openrouter | 9.44 | 8 |
| 2 | GPT-5.4 | openrouter | 9.16 | 9 |
| 3 | Claude Opus 4.6 | openrouter | 8.34 | 9 |
| 4 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | openrouter | 4.83 | 9 |
| 5 | DeepSeek V4 | openrouter | 4.82 | 9 |
| 6 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Xiaomi | 4.74 | 9 |
| 7 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | openrouter | 3.99 | 8 |
| 8 | Grok 4.20 | openrouter | 2.32 | 9 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | Gemini 3.1 Pro | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet | MiMo-V2-Flash | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | — | 5.2 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 0.2 | 9.0 | 2.5 | · | 5.1 | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 5.8 | — | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 7.2 | · | 7.0 | · |
| Claude Opus | 2.1 | 2.6 | — | 9.2 | 1.1 | 9.8 | 3.3 | · | 2.9 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | — | 1.6 | · | 4.0 | · | 4.0 | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | — | 8.8 | 4.4 | · | 5.2 | · |
| Claude Sonnet | 3.8 | 4.0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 2.3 | — | 5.4 | · | 4.8 | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | · | 6.2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 10.0 | — | · | 3.8 | · |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 3.0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 4.0 | — | 3.4 | · |
| Gemini 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 1.3 | 10.0 | 6.3 | · | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 5.7 | · | 7.3 | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: REASON-016. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260402-165004/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export