# The Multivac — Evaluation Report

**Evaluation ID:** EVAL-20260402-174539
**Date:** Apr 02, 2026
**Category:** reasoning
**Question ID:** REASON-022

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## Question

For each claim, determine if it's causal or correlational, and design an experiment to test causality: (1) 'Learning a musical instrument improves math scores.' (2) 'Countries with more Nobel laureates consume more chocolate per capita.' (3) 'Code reviews reduce bugs.' (4) 'Remote workers are more productive.' For each, identify at least two confounders.

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## Winner

**GPT-5.4** (openrouter)
- Winner Score: 9.28
- Matrix Average: 7.70
- Total Judgments: 79

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## Rankings

| Rank | Model | Provider | Avg Score | Judgments |
|------|-------|----------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | GPT-5.4 | openrouter | 9.28 | 8 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 4.6 | openrouter | 9.22 | 8 |
| 3 | Grok 4.20 | openrouter | 9.08 | 9 |
| 4 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Xiaomi | 8.87 | 9 |
| 5 | DeepSeek V4 | openrouter | 8.76 | 9 |
| 6 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | openrouter | 8.44 | 9 |
| 7 | GPT-OSS-120B | OpenAI | 8.09 | 9 |
| 8 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | openrouter | 7.97 | 8 |
| 9 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | openrouter | 7.07 | 9 |
| 10 | MiniMax M2.5 | openrouter | 0.20 | 1 |

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## 10×10 Judgment Matrix

Rows = Judge, Columns = Respondent. Self-judgments excluded (—).

| Judge ↓ / Resp → | MiMo-V2-Flash | Gemini 3.1 Pro | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiMo-V2-Flash | — | 7.5 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | · |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 9.8 | — | 9.8 | · | 9.8 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.5 | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 8.8 | 8.4 | — | 9.4 | · | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | · |
| Claude Opus | 9.2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | — | 9.4 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 9.2 | — | 8.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 9.0 | — | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 | · |
| Claude Sonnet | 9.0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | — | 8.4 | 8.8 | · |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 8.2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 7.8 | — | 8.7 | 0.2 |
| Gemini 2.5 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | · | 9.2 | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 8.4 | — |

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## Methodology

- **10×10 Blind Peer Matrix:** All models answer the same question, then all models judge all responses.
- **5 Criteria:** Correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness (each scored 1–10).
- **Self-judgments excluded:** Models do not judge their own responses.
- **Weighted Score:** Composite of all 5 criteria.

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## Citation

The Multivac (2026). Blind Peer Evaluation: REASON-022. app.themultivac.com

## License

Open data. Free to use, share, and build upon. Please cite The Multivac when using this data.

Download raw JSON: https://app.themultivac.com/api/evaluations/EVAL-20260402-174539/results
Full dataset: https://app.themultivac.com/dashboard/export