{ "evaluation_id": "EVAL-20260402-182524", "question_id": "REASON-029", "question_text": "During WWII, analysts studied bullet holes on returning bombers to decide where to add armor. They found most damage on the wings and fuselage, almost none on the engines. Their recommendation: armor the wings. Abraham Wald disagreed. (1) What was Wald's reasoning? (2) Give 5 modern examples of survivorship bias in business/tech. (3) 'We studied 100 successful startups and found they all did X.' Why is this analysis worthless without a control group?", "category": "reasoning", "timestamp": "2026-04-02T18:25:24.136Z", "display_date": "Apr 02, 2026", "winner": { "name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "provider": "openrouter", "score": 9.65 }, "avg_score": 9.388, "matrix_size": 89, "models_used": [ { "id": "gemini_25_flash", "name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "deepseek_v4", "name": "DeepSeek V4", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "claude_opus_46", "name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "gpt_5_4", "name": "GPT-5.4", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "grok_420", "name": "Grok 4.20", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "claude_sonnet_46", "name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "mimo_v2_flash", "name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "provider": "Xiaomi" }, { "id": "gpt_oss_120b", "name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "provider": "OpenAI" }, { "id": "minimax_m25", "name": "MiniMax M2.5", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "gemini_31_pro", "name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "provider": "openrouter" } ], "rankings": { "claude_opus_46": { "display_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.65, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.65, "max_score": 10, "rank": 1 }, "gpt_oss_120b": { "display_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "provider": "OpenAI", "average_score": 9.58, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 9, "max_score": 9.8, "rank": 2 }, "claude_sonnet_46": { "display_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.54, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.65, "max_score": 10, "rank": 3 }, "grok_420": { "display_name": "Grok 4.20", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.47, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.65, "max_score": 10, "rank": 4 }, "gpt_5_4": { "display_name": "GPT-5.4", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.44, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.25, "max_score": 10, "rank": 5 }, "minimax_m25": { "display_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.44, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.25, "max_score": 9.85, "rank": 6 }, "gemini_25_flash": { "display_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.41, "score_count": 8, "min_score": 8.65, "max_score": 10, "rank": 7 }, "mimo_v2_flash": { "display_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "provider": "Xiaomi", "average_score": 9.26, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.6, "max_score": 10, "rank": 8 }, "deepseek_v4": { "display_name": "DeepSeek V4", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.07, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.25, "max_score": 9.8, "rank": 9 }, "gemini_31_pro": { "display_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.02, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.45, "max_score": 10, "rank": 10 } }, "judgments": [ { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's reasoning, covers all requested parts with clear examples and rationale, though depth could be slightly deeper." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response perfectly answers all parts of the prompt with high accuracy, clear formatting, and excellent, relatable examples of survivorship bias." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally accurate, comprehensive, and well-structured. It provides profound depth by introducing statistical concepts like base rates and selection on the dependent variable, making it highly useful." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response is highly accurate, perfectly structured, and directly answers all parts of the prompt with excellent examples and statistical reasoning." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "" }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally accurate, comprehensive, and insightful. It perfectly explains Wald's reasoning, provides excellent modern examples, and uses a clear statistical framework to explain the necessity of control groups." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally accurate, comprehensive, and well-structured. It provides deep insights into survivorship bias with highly relevant modern examples and a rigorous statistical explanation of the need for control groups." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response is highly accurate, exceptionally well-structured using tables, and thoroughly answers all parts of the prompt with excellent depth and practical examples." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response perfectly answers all three parts of the prompt with high accuracy, excellent modern examples, and a deep, clear explanation of the statistical concepts involved." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response perfectly answers all three parts of the prompt with excellent clarity, accurate historical details, highly relevant modern examples, and a strong statistical explanation of why control groups are necessary." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate, thorough, and insightful with clear practical applications." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally thorough, accurate, and insightful, covering all aspects of the question with clarity and depth." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate and thorough with excellent modern examples and clear reasoning." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate and thorough with excellent modern examples and clear explanation of control group necessity." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "Exceptional response with thorough coverage, deep insights, and clear, actionable examples." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate, thorough, and insightful with clear examples and explanations." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate and thorough response with clear structure and insightful analysis." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate and thorough response with insightful examples and clear reasoning." }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Excellent response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained accurately and clearly. The five modern examples are diverse, well-chosen, and each includes both the biased view and the reality, showing genuine depth. The control group explanation is strong, with concrete illustrations showing why the analysis is flawed. The response appears slightly cut off at the very end but the substance is fully delivered. Minor deduction for completeness due to the truncation." }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Wald's reasoning is accurately and clearly explained. The five modern examples are well-chosen, distinct, and each includes a clear explanation of the bias. The control group analysis is solid with a good illustrative example (coffee). Minor depth limitation: could have mentioned base rates, statistical methodology, or the formal structure of Wald's analysis (e.g., conditional probability), but for the question asked, the response is excellent." }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate throughout, clearly explains Wald's reasoning with the key insight about missing data, provides five distinct and well-explained modern examples, and thoroughly addresses why the startup analysis is worthless without a control group. The explanation of base rates and the numerical example are particularly effective. Minor room for improvement: could mention confounding variables or Simpson's paradox, or note that even with a control group causation isn't guaran" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Excellent response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained accurately and clearly. The five modern examples are distinct, well-chosen, and genuinely illustrative rather than superficial. The control group analysis correctly identifies multiple failure modes of the flawed methodology (correlation vs causation, base rate neglect, confounding). The writing is crisp, well-structured, and uses effective analogies tying back to the original bomber example. Minor deduction on completeness " }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9.6, "brief_justification": "Exceptional response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained accurately and with genuine insight about the systematic nature of the missing data. The five modern examples are well-chosen, each with a clear structure showing what's visible vs. invisible, plus articulated downstream harms. The control group analysis in Part 3 is outstanding—the 2x2 table, the enumeration of specific errors, the reference class problem, and the meta-point about popular business books all demonstrate de" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough and accurate response. Wald's reasoning is explained correctly with the key insight about missing data clearly articulated. All five modern examples are distinct, well-chosen, and properly structured with both the observation and missing data components. The control group analysis is outstanding, covering multiple angles (ubiquity, reverse causation, negative correlation, base rate fallacy) with concrete examples. The writing is clear, well-organized with headers and forma" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough and accurate response. Wald's reasoning is explained precisely with the correct logic about missing data inference. The five modern examples are concrete, distinct, and well-explained with clear identification of what's being ignored. The control group analysis goes beyond the minimum by covering multiple statistical and methodological reasons. The table formatting enhances clarity significantly. Minor depth note: could have mentioned Wald's actual statistical framework (c" }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurately explains Wald's insight, provides five clear modern examples, and details why lacking a control group leads to bias; well‑structured and actionable, though depth could be slightly deeper." }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Excellent response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained accurately and clearly. The 5 modern examples are well-chosen, distinct, and each is thoroughly explained with concrete details. The control group analysis correctly identifies correlation vs. causation, the missing failure data problem, confounding variables, and the need for comparison groups. The closing analogy tying back to Wald's bombers is a nice touch. Minor deduction on completeness because the base rate fallacy ang" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally well-structured response that accurately explains Wald's reasoning, provides five distinct and relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly articulates why studying only successful startups without a control group is methodologically flawed. The response ties all three parts together with the survivorship bias theme and uses concrete examples throughout. The depth is strong, with concepts like 'selection on the dependent variable' and case-control study design properl" }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 8.6, "brief_justification": "Accurately explains Wald’s key insight and gives five relevant modern examples with practical explanations. The control-group discussion is strong and insightful. Minor completeness issue: the response is cut off at the end and slightly overstates that hits were likely evenly distributed." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9.25, "brief_justification": "Accurately explains Wald's reasoning, gives five relevant modern examples, and clearly shows why a control group is necessary to avoid survivorship bias and false causal inference. Well-structured and practical, though depth could be slightly stronger on selection effects/statistical framing." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "Accurate and fully addresses all three parts with clear structure, strong examples, and an excellent explanation of why a control group is necessary. Insightful, practical, and methodologically sound." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald and survivorship bias, gives five strong modern business/tech examples, and clearly explains why a control group is necessary, including causation vs correlation and confounding. Slightly short of perfect completeness only because it does not discuss control-group design in more methodological detail." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate and methodologically strong. It correctly explains Wald’s reasoning, gives five relevant modern examples, and clearly shows why a control group/base rate is essential using a contingency table and causal critique. Slightly verbose, but highly clear and useful." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald’s reasoning, gives five relevant modern examples, and clearly explains why startup-success-only analysis fails without a control group. Minor weakness: calling it 'worthless' is a bit overstated and 'inductive fallacy' is imprecise, but overall strong and practical." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Accurately explains Wald’s survivorship-bias reasoning, gives five relevant modern examples, and clearly shows why the startup claim needs a control group. Well-structured, insightful, and practical. Minor deduction because one example leans more toward overfitting/selection bias than pure survivorship bias." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate and well-structured explanation of Wald’s reasoning, strong modern examples, and a clear account of why a control group is essential. Practical, insightful, and directly answers all parts." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate and well-structured explanation of Wald's reasoning, strong modern examples of survivorship bias, and a clear account of why success-only startup studies need a control group. Practical, insightful, and nearly comprehensive." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate explanation of Wald's insight and survivorship bias. Five relevant modern examples are provided with clear explanations. The third part gives a solid logical breakdown of why control groups are essential, with good examples. Response is well-structured and insightful." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate explanation of Wald's insight and survivorship bias. Examples are relevant and diverse. Part 3 clearly explains the need for controls with a good analogy. Minor room for more depth in examples." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 9.2, "brief_justification": "Response is factually accurate on Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias. Provides thorough, well-structured explanations with clear examples and a helpful table. Offers insightful analysis of methodological flaws with strong practical value for avoiding bias in business analysis." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate on Wald's survivorship bias reasoning, provides five relevant modern examples with clear problems identified, and thoroughly explains the need for a control group with a concrete counter-example and additional considerations. It is exceptionally clear, well-structured, and highly useful." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Response is factually accurate on Wald's survivorship bias insight, provides five relevant modern examples with clear explanations of the bias, and thoroughly analyzes why the startup study lacks causal validity without controls. Structured, insightful, and highly practical." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Response is factually accurate on Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias. Provides thorough, well-structured explanations with clear modern examples and strong statistical insight on control groups. Minor room for more depth in some examples but highly useful overall." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate on Wald's reasoning, provides relevant modern examples, and thoroughly explains the control group issue with clear structure and insightful analysis." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate on Wald's reasoning, provides five relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly explains the need for a control group with good logical structure and insight." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate on Wald's reasoning and survivorship bias, provides five relevant modern examples, and clearly explains the control group issue with good logical depth and structure." }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three questions with accuracy and insight. Wald's reasoning is correctly explained. The five business examples are diverse, concrete, and well-explained. The control group analysis is logically sound and includes the critical insight about base rates. Minor issue: the response appears to be cut off mid-sentence at the end ('without understanding the actual'). Otherwise, this is a thorough, well-structured, and highly useful answer." }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9.25, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three parts accurately and clearly. Wald's reasoning is perfectly explained. The five examples are diverse and well-chosen with clear bias explanations. The control group analysis is spot-on with a memorable analogy. Minor deduction for depth—could have explored second-order implications or mentioned base rates more formally, but overall outstanding." }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "Exceptional response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained with precision and elegance. The five business/tech examples are diverse, concrete, and genuinely illustrative—not superficial. The control group analysis is methodologically rigorous, including a comparison table, formal statistical terminology (selection on the dependent variable), causal vs. correlational distinctions, and real-world references to criticized business books. The writing is exceptionally clear and well-st" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Excellent response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained precisely and correctly. The five modern examples are distinct, relevant, and well-articulated. The control group explanation is rigorous, includes a concrete numerical example, addresses base rates, and outlines what a proper analysis would require. Minor deduction for completeness as it could have briefly mentioned Wald's formal statistical contribution or the broader concept of selection bias more explicitly, but overall " }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Excellent response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained precisely and correctly. The five examples are diverse, concrete, and genuinely illustrative of survivorship bias in modern contexts. The control group explanation is logically rigorous, clearly structured, and directly ties back to the original WWII analogy. The response goes beyond surface-level explanation to address causation vs. correlation and the specific ways the analysis fails without a control group." }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 9.2, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three parts thoroughly. Wald's reasoning is explained accurately and clearly. The five modern examples are well-chosen, distinct, and include both the observed data and the missing data. The control group analysis is particularly strong, covering multiple statistical angles including base rate fallacy, reverse causation, and confounding variables. The formatting is clean and logical. Minor deduction on correctness as the response slightly oversimplifies Wald's for" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Exceptional response covering all three questions with precision and depth. Wald's reasoning is explained correctly with clear logical structure. The five business/tech examples are concrete, varied, and well-explained. The control group analysis is thorough, covering multiple distinct reasons (selection bias, base rates, correlation vs causation, confounding variables, statistical inference). Tables enhance clarity without sacrificing depth. Minor deduction in depth only because the philosophic" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three parts thoroughly. Wald's reasoning is explained accurately with the key insight about non-survivors. The five business examples are varied, relevant, and well-explained. The control group analysis correctly identifies survivorship bias, correlation vs. causation, and confounding variables. The closing callback to the bomber analogy is an effective rhetorical touch. Minor deduction for depth—could have gone further into base rate neglect or the mathematical/s" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "Excellent response across all dimensions. Wald's reasoning is explained accurately and insightfully, including the key insight about missing data. The five modern examples are varied, concrete, and genuinely illustrative of survivorship bias in different contexts. The control group explanation is rigorous, correctly identifying 'selection on the dependent variable' and providing a clear example. The response ties all three parts together cohesively. Minor deduction for completeness as the Bitcoi" }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Accurate and thorough explanation of Wald's reasoning, five relevant modern examples, and clear analysis of the control group issue. Well-structured and actionable." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Accurate and thorough explanation of Wald's reasoning, clear modern examples, and strong analysis of the startup study's flaw." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and insightful response covering all parts of the question with clear structure and practical examples." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "All answers are factually accurate, thoroughly cover the topic, clearly structured, insightful with practical examples, and highly actionable." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and well-structured response covering all parts of the question with clear examples and insightful analysis." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and insightful response with exceptional depth and practical value." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate, thorough, well-structured, insightful, and highly actionable." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and well-structured response with clear examples and insightful analysis." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate, thorough, and well-structured explanation with strong examples and clear reasoning." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurately explains Wald's insight, gives five relevant modern examples, and clearly outlines why a control group is needed; well‑structured and useful, though depth on statistical details could be slightly higher." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8.25, "brief_justification": "Accurate reasoning and full coverage of all parts, clearly presented; could offer deeper statistical insight but still practical and useful." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's insight, thorough examples, clear structure, good analytical depth, and practical relevance." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 8.25, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's insight, covers all parts with clear examples and reasoning, though depth could be deeper." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's insight, covers all three prompts with clear examples and reasoning, offers solid depth and practical value." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's insight, covers all three prompts with detailed modern examples and a thorough critique of the startup study methodology, presented clearly and with useful analytical guidance." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 8.25, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's insight and survivorship bias, covers all three prompts with clear headings and examples, though depth could be deeper on statistical nuance." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally well-structured, accurate, and comprehensive. It provides a thorough explanation of Wald's reasoning, offers diverse and relevant modern examples, and clearly articulates the importance of a control group, demonstrating a deep understanding of survivorship bias." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "The response accurately and clearly explains Wald's reasoning and provides excellent, relevant examples of survivorship bias. The explanation for the startup analysis is also very good." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally well-structured, accurate, and provides comprehensive answers to all parts of the question. The examples are relevant and clearly illustrate the concept of survivorship bias. The explanation for the worthlessness of the '100 successful startups' analysis is particularly insightful and thorough." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally clear, accurate, and comprehensive. It thoroughly explains Wald's reasoning, provides excellent modern examples, and deeply analyzes the control group's importance with a practical example." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.85, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally accurate, complete, clear, and provides deep insights into survivorship bias with practical examples. It thoroughly answers all parts of the prompt." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "This response is exceptionally well-structured, accurate, and comprehensive. It not only answers all parts of the question thoroughly but also provides insightful analysis and practical examples. The explanation of Wald's reasoning is crystal clear, the modern examples are highly relevant and well-articulated, and the breakdown of why the '100 successful startups' analysis is flawed is outstanding in its depth and clarity. This is a model answer." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally well-structured, accurate, and comprehensive. It provides a thorough explanation of Wald's reasoning, offers diverse and relevant modern examples of survivorship bias, and clearly articulates the statistical pitfalls of analyzing only successful outcomes without a control group. The depth of explanation for each point is excellent, making it highly useful for understanding the concept." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.45, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally clear, accurate, and comprehensive. It provides excellent depth in explaining Wald's reasoning and the implications of survivorship bias, with practical examples and a strong explanation of the need for control groups." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_25_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.85, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally well-structured, accurate, and comprehensive. It thoroughly answers all parts of the question with clear explanations and relevant examples. The depth of understanding of survivorship bias and control groups is evident." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 8.45, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's survivorship bias reasoning with five relevant modern examples. Clear control group explanation. Minor deduction for incomplete final sentence." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8.6, "brief_justification": "Accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias reasoning with clear examples. Provides 5 relevant modern examples and effectively explains why the startup analysis lacks value without a control group. Well-structured and insightful." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three parts thoroughly. Wald's reasoning is explained with the key insight about engines showing no damage because hit planes didn't return. Five diverse, well-explained modern examples of survivorship bias. The control group explanation is particularly strong with the scenario table and concrete restaurant illustration. Well-structured with clear headings and appropriate technical terminology." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three parts thoroughly. Wald's reasoning is clearly explained with the key insight about fatal vs. survivable damage. Modern examples are relevant and well-chosen. The control group explanation is compelling with concrete comparison and actionable criteria for proper analysis." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate explanation of Wald's survivorship bias reasoning with well-chosen modern examples. Clear structure and thorough coverage of all three parts. Good depth explaining the mechanism and control group necessity. Practical and actionable content." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three parts thoroughly. Wald's reasoning is accurately explained with the key insight about conditioned survival. All five business examples are well-developed with real damage analysis. The startup analysis critique is particularly strong, using the 2x2 table framework to show exactly why the analysis fails. Well-structured, insightful, and practically useful." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.6, "brief_justification": "Accurate and well-structured response. Correctly explains Wald's key insight about missing data, provides 5 relevant modern examples, and thoroughly covers the statistical problems with startup analysis including correlation/causation and base rate fallacies. Slightly less depth on historical details but otherwise comprehensive." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.65, "brief_justification": "Excellent response covering all three parts thoroughly. Wald's reasoning is perfectly explained with the missing-data insight. Five relevant modern examples provided with clear explanations of why each represents survivorship bias. The control group explanation is comprehensive, covering selection bias, correlation vs causation, confounding variables, and statistical inference. Well-structured with helpful tables and clear formatting throughout." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gemini_25_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 2.5 Flash", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "Excellent response that accurately explains Wald's survivorship bias reasoning, provides 5 relevant and distinct modern examples, and thoroughly explains why control groups are essential. Well-structured with clear headings and deep analytical insights." } ], "meta": { "source": "The Multivac (app.themultivac.com)", "methodology": "10x10 blind peer matrix evaluation", "criteria": "correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness", "self_judgments": "excluded from rankings", "license": "Open data — cite as: The Multivac (2026)" } }