{ "evaluation_id": "EVAL-20260402-213909", "question_id": "ANALYSIS-030", "question_text": "A city's housing data shows: median price $800K (up 40% in 3 years), median income $75K, price-to-income ratio 10.7 (national avg 5.2), rental yield 3.1%, vacancy rate 1.2%, new construction permits down 30% YoY. (1) Is this a bubble? What additional data would you need? (2) Who benefits and who is harmed by these conditions? (3) A politician proposes rent control. Analyze the likely outcomes using economic theory and empirical evidence.", "category": "analysis", "timestamp": "2026-04-02T21:39:09.121Z", "display_date": "Apr 02, 2026", "winner": { "name": "Grok 4.20", "provider": "openrouter", "score": 9.13 }, "avg_score": 8.639, "matrix_size": 89, "models_used": [ { "id": "grok_420", "name": "Grok 4.20", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "claude_opus_46", "name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "gpt_5_4", "name": "GPT-5.4", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "deepseek_v4", "name": "DeepSeek V4", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "mimo_v2_flash", "name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "provider": "Xiaomi" }, { "id": "claude_sonnet_46", "name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "gpt_oss_120b", "name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "provider": "OpenAI" }, { "id": "gemini_3_flash", "name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "provider": "Google" }, { "id": "minimax_m25", "name": "MiniMax M2.5", "provider": "openrouter" }, { "id": "gemini_31_pro", "name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "provider": "openrouter" } ], "rankings": { "grok_420": { "display_name": "Grok 4.20", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.13, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.15, "max_score": 10, "rank": 1 }, "gpt_5_4": { "display_name": "GPT-5.4", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.1, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.65, "max_score": 9.6, "rank": 2 }, "minimax_m25": { "display_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 9.06, "score_count": 8, "min_score": 8.45, "max_score": 10, "rank": 3 }, "mimo_v2_flash": { "display_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "provider": "Xiaomi", "average_score": 8.96, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.4, "max_score": 10, "rank": 4 }, "gemini_3_flash": { "display_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "provider": "Google", "average_score": 8.87, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8.45, "max_score": 10, "rank": 5 }, "claude_sonnet_46": { "display_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 8.64, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 7.05, "max_score": 9.8, "rank": 6 }, "deepseek_v4": { "display_name": "DeepSeek V4", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 8.59, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 8, "max_score": 9.8, "rank": 7 }, "gpt_oss_120b": { "display_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "provider": "OpenAI", "average_score": 8.35, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 6.9, "max_score": 9.6, "rank": 8 }, "claude_opus_46": { "display_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 8.31, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 7.25, "max_score": 9.35, "rank": 9 }, "gemini_31_pro": { "display_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "provider": "openrouter", "average_score": 7.38, "score_count": 9, "min_score": 6.1, "max_score": 9, "rank": 10 } }, "judgments": [ { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive and accurate analysis across all three questions, integrating economic theory, empirical evidence, and specific policy implications. Strong depth and practical value." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 7.65, "brief_justification": "The analysis is highly accurate, clear, and insightful, but the response is cut off before completing the rent control section, significantly impacting completeness." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.25, "brief_justification": "The response provides excellent, accurate, and deep economic analysis with clear structuring, but it cuts off mid-sentence at the very end." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally well-structured, economically sound, and comprehensively addresses all parts of the prompt with excellent use of theory and empirical evidence." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally accurate, comprehensive, and well-structured, demonstrating deep economic understanding and providing highly useful, nuanced insights." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.25, "brief_justification": "The response provides highly accurate, insightful, and well-structured economic analysis, but it cuts off abruptly at the end of the third section, significantly impacting its completeness." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally accurate, comprehensive, and well-structured. It provides deep economic analysis, cites relevant empirical studies, and offers highly useful, actionable insights." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 7.15, "brief_justification": "The response provides excellent, well-structured analysis for the first two questions but completely fails to answer the third question regarding rent control, cutting off abruptly at the end." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally well-structured, factually accurate, and comprehensively addresses all parts of the prompt with deep economic insight and practical policy alternatives." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_31_pro", "judge_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 10, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally accurate, comprehensive, and well-structured. It applies economic theory perfectly to the specific data provided, includes insightful calculations, and offers highly useful policy alternatives." }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 6.75, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate and well-structured for parts 1 and 2, with good analytical depth on the bubble question and solid identification of additional data needs. However, the response is clearly truncated - it cuts off mid-sentence in part 2 and entirely omits part 3 (rent control analysis), which was a major component of the question. This severely impacts completeness and usefulness. The analysis that is present demonstrates strong economic reasoning, particularly the distinction " }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.2, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough and well-structured response that correctly distinguishes between bubble and supply-constrained scenarios, provides a comprehensive list of additional data needed, accurately identifies beneficiaries and those harmed with nuanced reasoning, and delivers a textbook-quality analysis of rent control grounded in both economic theory and empirical evidence (including the San Francisco example). The response demonstrates deep understanding of housing economics, distributional ef" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8, "brief_justification": "The response is well-structured, largely accurate, and covers the key points across all three parts. The bubble analysis correctly identifies warning signs and requests appropriate additional data. The distributional analysis is solid though could go deeper (e.g., construction workers, local government tax revenue). The rent control analysis correctly applies standard economic theory and cites relevant empirical examples, though the San Francisco claim about 15%+ supply reduction could be more p" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.95, "brief_justification": "Excellent, well-structured response that covers all three parts thoroughly. The bubble analysis correctly identifies key indicators and thoughtfully notes that a bubble implies an imminent pop vs. a 'new normal.' The additional data needed is well-chosen (interest rates, migration, cash buyers, risk-free rate comparison). The distributional analysis is comprehensive. The rent control section effectively integrates theory and empirical evidence (San Francisco study, Stockholm, Berlin). Minor issu" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough and analytically rigorous response. The bubble assessment correctly identifies the ambiguity between bubble and supply-constrained equilibrium, and the list of additional data needed is comprehensive and well-reasoned. The distributional analysis is nuanced, citing relevant research (Hsieh & Moretti). The rent control section engages seriously with both theory and empirical evidence (Diamond et al., Autor, Arnott), presenting a balanced view rather than a simplistic take. " }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.6, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough and well-structured response. Correctly applies economic theory and cites specific empirical studies (Diamond et al. 2019, Autor et al. 2014, Glaeser & Luttmer 2003) with accurate findings. The bubble analysis is nuanced, appropriately distinguishing between speculative bubble and structural unaffordability. The distributional analysis is comprehensive, covering both obvious and less obvious stakeholders. The rent control section is outstanding, covering first- and second-" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 8.2, "brief_justification": "The response provides a well-structured, thorough analysis across all three questions. The bubble diagnostic framework is strong with appropriate indicators and a clear articulation that bubbles are probability assessments rather than binary. The additional data needs are comprehensive and well-justified. The stakeholder analysis is detailed with clear mechanisms. However, the response appears truncated - the rent control analysis (Part 3) and the stakeholder table are cut off, which limits comp" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, well-structured, and demonstrates strong economic reasoning. The bubble analysis correctly distinguishes between speculative and structural factors. The distributional analysis is solid, and the rent control section appropriately cites the Diamond et al. (2019) study and applies price ceiling theory. Minor gaps: could have mentioned population growth/migration data as additional needed info, discussed second-generation rent control designs, or explored more nu" }, { "judge_key": "claude_opus_46", "judge_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.2, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally well-structured response that systematically addresses all three parts. The bubble analysis correctly identifies red flags while appropriately noting the need for additional data to distinguish speculation from supply-constrained fundamentals. The distributional analysis is thorough and includes a concrete mortgage affordability calculation. The rent control analysis effectively integrates both standard economic theory and empirical evidence from real cities, and applies it specifi" }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 6.1, "brief_justification": "The response is generally accurate in distinguishing bubble risk from supply constraints and identifies relevant additional data, but it is incomplete: it is truncated, does not fully answer who is harmed, and entirely omits analysis of the proposed rent control policy. Clear structure and some economic insight are present, but coverage and practical usefulness are limited by the missing third section." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 7.25, "brief_justification": "Accurate and nuanced on bubble vs. supply shortage, with strong distributional analysis and relevant additional data. However, the rent-control section is truncated before presenting empirical evidence and likely outcomes, leaving the core of part (3) incomplete and reducing practical usefulness." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8, "brief_justification": "Well-structured and mostly accurate. It correctly distinguishes bubble signals from supply scarcity and gives sensible additional data needs. Distributional effects and rent-control analysis are strong, with reasonable theory and some empirical references. Minor overreach in labeling it 'likely a bubble' from limited data and a few claims could be more nuanced, but overall it is clear, practical, and informative." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.55, "brief_justification": "Strong, well-structured analysis that correctly distinguishes bubble indicators from supply-driven scarcity and gives relevant additional data. Rent control discussion is grounded in standard theory and cites empirical examples, though it overstates certainty by calling the market a bubble and labeling rent control 'catastrophic' without enough nuance about policy design and mixed evidence across jurisdictions." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 7.05, "brief_justification": "Accurate and thoughtful on bubble uncertainty, distributional effects, and core rent-control theory/evidence, but the rent-control analysis is incomplete/truncated and includes a few debatable claims and rough calculations." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 8.75, "brief_justification": "Accurate, well-structured, and thorough. It correctly avoids calling a bubble definitively from limited data, identifies key missing variables, covers distributional effects well, and gives a strong theory-plus-evidence discussion of rent control. Slight overstatement in some comparisons and a somewhat one-sided treatment of rent control evidence keep correctness from being higher." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 6.9, "brief_justification": "Well-structured and mostly accurate on bubble diagnostics and stakeholder impacts, but it invents unsupported data, leaves the rent-control analysis essentially unanswered, and contains some questionable claims about vacancy and investors." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 8.6, "brief_justification": "Accurate and well-structured analysis that distinguishes bubble risk from structural undersupply, identifies key missing data, and gives a balanced theory-plus-evidence discussion of rent control. Slightly incomplete on additional diagnostics like price-to-rent, income growth, migration, and heterogeneity across rent control designs." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_5_4", "judge_name": "GPT-5.4", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Accurate and well-structured analysis that appropriately distinguishes bubble signals from supply constraints, identifies key missing data, and gives a balanced theory-plus-evidence discussion of rent control. Slightly overstated certainty on rent control and bubble framing keeps depth/correctness just shy of perfect." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, well-reasoned, and clear analysis with actionable insights." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate, thorough, and insightful analysis with clear structure and practical value." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, well-structured, and insightful analysis with practical implications." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and insightful analysis with clear structure and practical implications." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, well-structured, and insightful analysis covering all aspects of the question with empirical support." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Highly accurate and comprehensive analysis with strong empirical support and clear structure." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, well-structured, and insightful analysis with clear evidence-based reasoning." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and insightful analysis with clear structure and practical recommendations." }, { "judge_key": "deepseek_v4", "judge_name": "DeepSeek V4", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and insightful analysis with clear structure and practical recommendations." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 7.8, "brief_justification": "Strong analysis of the bubble question and beneficiaries, but the response is incomplete (cuts off mid-sentence in Q2) and lacks the requested analysis for Q3 (rent control)." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 7.8, "brief_justification": "Strong analysis with good depth on bubble assessment and distributional effects. The rent control section is incomplete (cuts off mid-sentence), which limits completeness score. Overall accurate and well-structured." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.2, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and well-structured analysis covering all three parts with strong theoretical and empirical grounding." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Strong analysis with accurate economic theory and evidence. Slightly more depth on bubble indicators could elevate it." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Excellent analysis with strong factual grounding, nuanced understanding of empirical evidence, and clear structure. The response correctly identifies key trade-offs and cites relevant research while acknowledging uncertainty." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.4, "brief_justification": "Response is factually accurate, thoroughly covers all questions, exceptionally clear and structured, provides deep economic analysis, and offers high practical value for policy decisions." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Excellent analysis that correctly identifies the dual nature of the crisis (bubble vs. supply shortage), provides specific additional data points, accurately identifies stakeholders, and offers a nuanced economic critique of rent control supported by empirical examples." }, { "judge_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "judge_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9.2, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, accurate, and well-structured analysis with strong economic reasoning and practical alternatives." }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 7.25, "brief_justification": "The response is well-structured and analytically sound for parts 1 and 2, correctly identifying the supply-demand mismatch vs. bubble distinction and providing a balanced beneficiary/harm analysis. However, the response is clearly truncated mid-sentence in part 2 (cutting off at '$75'), and part 3 on rent control analysis is entirely missing. This is a significant completeness failure given that rent control analysis was a core part of the question requiring economic theory and empirical evidenc" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough and well-structured analysis across all three parts. Correctly distinguishes between bubble dynamics and structural supply shortage, provides comprehensive distributional analysis with important nuances, and begins a sophisticated treatment of rent control that balances theory with empirical evidence. The response is cut off mid-sentence in Part 3, which prevents a complete assessment of the rent control section and reduces completeness. Despite this truncation, the depth " }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.2, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough response covering all three questions with strong economic reasoning. Correctly distinguishes bubble vs. supply-constraint scenarios, provides comprehensive lists of additional data needed, accurately identifies distributional effects, and gives a nuanced analysis of rent control backed by both theory and empirical evidence (SF example). The response is well-structured with clear headers. Minor deduction for correctness/clarity as the response appears to be cut off mid-sen" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8, "brief_justification": "Well-structured response covering all three questions with accurate economic theory and relevant empirical examples. The bubble analysis correctly identifies key indicators but could explore the distinction between supply-driven price increases vs. speculative bubbles more deeply. The distributional analysis is solid but misses some nuances (e.g., landlords with low yields may actually be harmed). The rent control analysis is economically sound with good empirical citations, though the Berlin ex" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive, well-structured analysis covering all three questions with strong economic reasoning. Correctly identifies bubble indicators, distributional effects, and rent control trade-offs with relevant empirical examples (SF, Stockholm, Berlin). Minor gap: could have explored heterodox perspectives on rent control more thoroughly (e.g., second-generation rent stabilization evidence) and the distinction between hard rent control and rent stabilization. The supply-side alternatives mentioned " }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.4, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough response covering all three questions with strong economic theory, specific empirical citations (Diamond et al., Autor et al., Glaeser), and nuanced analysis. Correctly identifies bubble warning signs while appropriately noting uncertainty, provides comprehensive stakeholder analysis, and delivers a well-evidenced critique of rent control with policy alternatives. Minor deduction on correctness for slightly overstating certainty in some empirical claims, but overall this i" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "The response is highly structured, analytically rigorous, and factually accurate. It provides a strong diagnostic framework for bubble assessment with clear benchmarks, a comprehensive stakeholder analysis, and well-organized tables. The main gap is that the response appears to be cut off before addressing question 3 (rent control analysis), which significantly reduces completeness. Despite this truncation, the portions provided demonstrate exceptional depth and clarity, with actionable data rec" }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 8.6, "brief_justification": "Excellent analysis that correctly identifies both bubble indicators and structural supply issues. Strong use of empirical evidence (Diamond et al., Berlin). The beneficiary/harm analysis is thorough. Minor gaps: doesn't mention migration/demographic data as additional needed info, could explore rent control variants (new construction exemptions) or alternative policies more deeply. Overall highly accurate, well-structured, and actionable." }, { "judge_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "judge_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Exceptionally thorough response covering all three questions with strong economic reasoning. Correctly identifies bubble indicators while appropriately noting supply-side factors, provides balanced beneficiary/harm analysis with concrete calculations, and delivers a nuanced rent control analysis integrating both theory and empirical evidence. The alternative policy suggestions add practical value. Minor gap: could have discussed heterodox views on rent control or newer research showing mixed res" }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 8.05, "brief_justification": "Strong economic reasoning and balanced analysis on bubble diagnosis, winners/losers, but response is truncated mid-sentence on part 2 and provides no analysis for part 3 (rent control), reducing completeness." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, logically structured, and draws on sound economic principles with relevant empirical references. It thoroughly addresses all three questions with balanced analysis, insightful distinctions between bubble vs. shortage, clear winners/losers breakdown, and nuanced rent control discussion. Minor incompleteness as it cuts off mid-sentence in the empirical section, but overall highly useful and clear." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Response is factually accurate, logically sound, and provides thorough, well-structured analysis drawing on economic theory and empirical evidence. It covers all aspects of the query with insightful depth and practical policy suggestions." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8.45, "brief_justification": "Response is factually sound, logically structured, and draws on established economic principles with relevant examples. It covers all parts thoroughly but could include more quantitative metrics or counter-evidence for even greater depth." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, logically sound, and draws on established economic principles and real-world studies. It thoroughly addresses all three parts of the query with structured analysis, relevant data considerations, stakeholder impacts, and evidence-based policy evaluation. Minor deduction on depth as some empirical citations are slightly generalized, but overall highly insightful and actionable." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.85, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate, logically structured, and draws on relevant economic theory and empirical studies (e.g., Diamond 2019, Hsieh & Moretti). It thoroughly covers all three questions with balanced analysis, insightful distributional and policy nuance, and clear tables/sections for readability. Minor deduction on usefulness as some data needs are exhaustive but not prioritized for immediate actionability." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Response is factually accurate, logically structured with tables and frameworks, covers all questions thoroughly using economic concepts and data needs, provides insightful analysis with stakeholder breakdown and empirical context, highly useful for policy or reporting purposes." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 8.6, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate in its economic analysis, covers all three questions thoroughly with clear structure, provides insightful economic theory and empirical references, and offers practical policy implications." }, { "judge_key": "grok_420", "judge_name": "Grok 4.20", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Response is factually accurate, logically sound, and covers all three questions thoroughly with economic theory, empirical references, and actionable alternatives. Minor room for more quantitative examples but overall excellent structure and insight." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 6.25, "brief_justification": "The response is clear and mostly accurate, but it is incomplete, missing the rent control analysis and ending abruptly, limiting its overall usefulness and depth." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 7.25, "brief_justification": "The response is factually accurate and well-structured, covering bubble assessment, distributional effects, and rent control theory. However, it is incomplete, especially the rent control empirical evidence section, reducing overall completeness and usefulness." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurate analysis, covers all asked points, well-structured, offers solid theoretical and empirical insight, and gives actionable policy ideas." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8.45, "brief_justification": "" }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.45, "brief_justification": "Accurate analysis covering bubble indicators, needed data, stakeholder impacts, and rent control effects with theory and empirical examples; well-structured and actionable, though could include a few more data points for full completeness." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurate facts and citations, covers all three prompts with structured analysis, clear presentation, and nuanced economic insight, offering actionable data needs and policy implications." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 8.65, "brief_justification": "Accurate and thorough analysis covering all parts, well-structured, cites theory and evidence, and offers practical data needs and policy alternatives." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 8.45, "brief_justification": "Accurate analysis of overvaluation and supply constraints, covers all question parts, well-structured, offers insightful theory and empirical evidence, and suggests practical policy directions." }, { "judge_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "judge_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "respondent_key": "minimax_m25", "respondent_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "weighted_score": 8.45, "brief_justification": "Accurate analysis with solid data needs, thorough coverage of benefits/harm and rent control impacts, well-structured and clear, offers insightful economic theory and empirical evidence, and gives practical policy alternatives." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 8.45, "brief_justification": "The response provides a high-quality economic analysis of the housing data. It correctly identifies that the low vacancy rate suggests a supply shortage rather than a purely speculative bubble. It lists relevant additional data points and identifies winners and losers accurately. The response is cut off at the very end, missing the final section on rent control, which slightly reduces its completeness score." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 9.35, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally high quality. It correctly identifies that the data points toward a supply shortage rather than a classic speculative bubble, provides a comprehensive list of additional data needs, and offers a balanced, evidence-based analysis of rent control. The response was cut off at the very end, but the content provided is thorough and insightful." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 9.6, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally thorough and logically sound. It correctly identifies that the low vacancy rate and falling permits suggest a supply-side crisis rather than a pure speculative bubble. The analysis of rent control aligns perfectly with standard economic theory and empirical studies like the Diamond et al. San Francisco study. The only minor omission is the cutoff at the very end, but the content provided is comprehensive." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 9.6, "brief_justification": "The response provides a highly accurate and structured economic analysis. It correctly identifies the indicators of a bubble while acknowledging the need for leverage data, accurately identifies stakeholders, and provides a balanced view of rent control supported by economic theory and empirical examples." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally thorough and accurate. It correctly identifies the indicators of a bubble while maintaining the necessary nuance regarding 'new normals' and the need for interest rate/migration data. The stakeholder analysis is comprehensive, and the economic analysis of rent control is grounded in both theory and specific empirical studies (San Francisco, Stockholm)." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally high quality. It correctly identifies that the data suggests a supply crisis rather than a definitive bubble, provides a sophisticated list of missing data points (especially credit and demographic data), and offers a balanced, evidence-based analysis of rent control citing specific landmark studies (Diamond, Autor)." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 9.8, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally thorough, accurate, and well-structured. It correctly identifies the economic indicators of a housing bubble, provides a comprehensive list of missing data points, and offers a sophisticated analysis of rent control backed by specific academic citations (e.g., Diamond et al., Autor et al.). It perfectly addresses all three parts of the prompt with high-level economic literacy." }, { "judge_key": "gemini_3_flash", "judge_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 9.6, "brief_justification": "The response is exceptionally well-structured and analytically rigorous. It correctly identifies that while indicators suggest a bubble, supply-side constraints (low vacancy and falling permits) complicate a simple 'bubble' diagnosis. It provides a comprehensive list of stakeholders and data gaps. The only minor omission is the specific analysis of rent control requested in part 3, though the provided content is of very high quality." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gemini_31_pro", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3.1 Pro", "weighted_score": 6.75, "brief_justification": "Well-structured analysis with accurate economic reasoning for questions 1 and 2, but the response is incomplete - it cuts off mid-sentence and fails to address question 3 about rent control entirely." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "claude_opus_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Opus 4.6", "weighted_score": 9, "brief_justification": "Excellent comprehensive analysis. Correctly distinguishes between bubble and supply-demand imbalance, provides extensive additional data needed, thoroughly analyzes winners/losers with specific calculations, and presents both theoretical predictions and empirical evidence on rent control with appropriate nuance." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gpt_5_4", "respondent_name": "GPT-5.4", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Excellent economic analysis with correct distinction between bubble and supply scarcity. Comprehensive coverage of all three questions with appropriate data requirements, stakeholder analysis, and evidence-based rent control evaluation. Well-structured with clear headings and logical flow. Deep analysis considering short-run vs long-run effects, empirical evidence, and specific policy alternatives. Highly actionable for policymakers despite being cut off near the end." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "deepseek_v4", "respondent_name": "DeepSeek V4", "weighted_score": 8.2, "brief_justification": "Well-structured response covering all three parts with accurate economic analysis. Correctly identifies bubble indicators and needed data, covers stakeholder impacts comprehensively, and applies economic theory with empirical evidence (San Francisco, Berlin) to rent control analysis. Clear headings and bullet points enhance readability. Offers practical alternatives like zoning reform and targeted subsidies." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "mimo_v2_flash", "respondent_name": "MiMo-V2-Flash", "weighted_score": 8.4, "brief_justification": "Accurate economic analysis with comprehensive coverage of all three parts. Well-organized with clear headings and logical flow. Provides good depth through theoretical frameworks and empirical evidence (Stanford, Stockholm, Berlin studies). Identifies specific additional data needed and offers practical alternative policy solutions. Minor gaps in historical context and some alternative explanations for high prices." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "claude_sonnet_46", "respondent_name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6", "weighted_score": 8.4, "brief_justification": "Comprehensive analysis covering all three parts with accurate economic theory and empirical evidence (Stanford study). Well-structured with clear headings and a useful indicator table. Distinguishes bubble from supply-constrained equilibrium appropriately. Detailed distributional analysis identifies winners/losers with systemic observations. Rent control analysis presents both theory and evidence fairly." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "grok_420", "respondent_name": "Grok 4.20", "weighted_score": 8.15, "brief_justification": "Accurate economic analysis with appropriate theory and empirical references. Thorough coverage of all three questions with clear structure. Good depth including specific studies and mechanisms. Highly actionable with concrete missing data, stakeholder impacts, and policy alternatives." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gpt_oss_120b", "respondent_name": "GPT-OSS-120B", "weighted_score": 7.3, "brief_justification": "Well-structured analysis with accurate economic frameworks for questions 1 and 2. However, the response appears incomplete - it does not address question 3 about rent control analysis at all, significantly reducing overall usefulness." }, { "judge_key": "minimax_m25", "judge_name": "MiniMax M2.5", "respondent_key": "gemini_3_flash", "respondent_name": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", "weighted_score": 8.8, "brief_justification": "Accurately identifies both bubble risks and structural supply shortage. Provides comprehensive analysis of all three questions with correct economic reasoning. Well-structured with clear headings and bullet points. Cites specific empirical studies (Diamond et al. 2019, Berlin) for rent control analysis. Offers practical policy recommendations. Slight deduction in depth for not exploring macroeconomic context more fully." } ], "meta": { "source": "The Multivac (app.themultivac.com)", "methodology": "10x10 blind peer matrix evaluation", "criteria": "correctness, completeness, clarity, depth, usefulness", "self_judgments": "excluded from rankings", "license": "Open data — cite as: The Multivac (2026)" } }