reasoning
Jan 14, 2026REASON-001You're given two sealed envelopes. You're told one contains twice as much money as the other, but you don't know which is which. You pick envelope A and find $100. You reason: "Envelope B either has $50 or $200. If I switch, I have a 50% chance of getting $50 and 50% chance of getting $200. Expected value of switching = 0.5($50) + 0.5($200) = $125. That's more than $100, so I should switch." But wait - this logic would apply no matter what amount you found. That can't be right. What's the flaw in this reasoning? Provide a rigorous explanation.
Winner
GPT-OSS-120B
OpenAI
9.68
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.68
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 100 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Gemini 2.5 Flash | DeepSeek V3.2 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Gemini 3 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | Claude Opus 4.5 | Gemini 3 | GPT-OSS-120B | OLMo Think | Grok 3 (Direct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | — | 9.4 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| DeepSeek V3.2 | 8.7 | — | 9.7 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 8.8 | 8.7 | — | 8.7 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| Gemini 3 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.6 | — | 9.8 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 | — | 9.7 | 2.6 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| Claude Opus 4.5 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | — | 2.3 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Gemini 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 8.7 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.5 | — | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| OLMo Think | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | — | 0.0 |
| Grok 3 (Direct) | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 9.7 | 8.3 | — |