← Evaluations/EVAL-20260207-132714
reasoning
Jan 14, 2026REASON-001

You're given two sealed envelopes. You're told one contains twice as much money as the other, but you don't know which is which. You pick envelope A and find $100. You reason: "Envelope B either has $50 or $200. If I switch, I have a 50% chance of getting $50 and 50% chance of getting $200. Expected value of switching = 0.5($50) + 0.5($200) = $125. That's more than $100, so I should switch." But wait - this logic would apply no matter what amount you found. That can't be right. What's the flaw in this reasoning? Provide a rigorous explanation.

Winner
GPT-OSS-120B
OpenAI
9.68
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.68
results.json report.mdFull dataset (CSV) →
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 100 judgments
OPEN DATA
Judge ↓ / Respondent →Gemini 2.5 FlashDeepSeek V3.2MiMo-V2-FlashGemini 3Claude Sonnet 4.5Claude Opus 4.5Gemini 3GPT-OSS-120BOLMo ThinkGrok 3 (Direct)
Gemini 2.5 Flash9.48.89.39.39.47.09.89.49.7
DeepSeek V3.28.79.79.09.49.47.99.79.19.4
MiMo-V2-Flash8.88.78.79.09.66.19.89.08.7
Gemini 39.39.89.69.810.07.010.09.810.0
Claude Sonnet 4.58.79.79.08.79.72.69.79.79.7
Claude Opus 4.57.39.26.28.88.42.38.88.78.7
Gemini 30.00.00.00.00.010.00.00.00.0
GPT-OSS-120B8.79.38.48.88.68.44.57.98.4
OLMo Think0.010.00.00.00.00.00.010.00.0
Grok 3 (Direct)8.38.78.78.78.79.33.69.78.3