reasoning
Mar 11, 2026REASON-009A study finds that cities with more ice cream sales have higher crime rates. 1. List all plausible causal structures that could explain this correlation 2. For each structure, describe what intervention would test it 3. A politician proposes banning ice cream to reduce crime. Analyze this policy using causal reasoning. 4. Design a study that could distinguish between the causal hypotheses
Winner
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Anthropic
9.66
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.82
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 100 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | MiMo-V2-Flash | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 Flash | Gemini 3 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | DeepSeek V3.2 | Claude Opus 4.5 | Gemini 3 | OLMo Think | Grok 3 (Direct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiMo-V2-Flash | — | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.8 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 8.3 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 10.0 | 9.7 | — | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 9.7 |
| Gemini 3 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 9.3 | — | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 9.6 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | — | 9.2 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 9.0 |
| DeepSeek V3.2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | — | 9.6 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 9.2 |
| Claude Opus 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | — | 7.5 | 1.1 | 8.8 |
| Gemini 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OLMo Think | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | — | 0.0 |
| Grok 3 (Direct) | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | — |