reasoning
Mar 15, 2026EVAL-20260315-055905A disease affects 1 in 10,000 people. A test is 99% sensitive (true positive rate) and 99.5% specific (true negative rate). A patient tests positive. (1) What is the probability they have the disease? (2) If they test positive twice with independent tests, what is the probability? (3) A doctor says 'You tested positive, so you almost certainly have it.' Critique this reasoning. (4) Design a testing protocol that achieves >95% positive predictive value.
Winner
Gemma 3 27B
openrouter
9.59
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.79
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 65 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Qwen 3 32B | Devstral Small | Gemma 3 27B | Llama 4 Scout | Phi-4 14B | Granite 4.0 Micro | Qwen 3 8B | Mistral Nemo 12B | Llama 3.1 8B | Kimi K2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen 3 32B | — | · | 10.0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 | · |
| Devstral Small | · | — | 9.8 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 6.7 | · |
| Gemma 3 27B | · | 8.3 | — | 9.3 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 6.8 | · |
| Llama 4 Scout | · | 9.8 | 9.8 | — | 9.8 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 8.3 | · |
| Phi-4 14B | · | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.9 | — | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | · |
| Granite 4.0 Micro | 8.3 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | — | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| Qwen 3 8B | · | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | — | 7.4 | 7.5 | · |
| Mistral Nemo 12B | · | 9.7 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.2 | — | 8.7 | · |
| Llama 3.1 8B | · | 8.8 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 9.3 | — | · |
| Kimi K2.5 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | — |