reasoning
Mar 15, 2026EVAL-20260315-061839You must choose between three investments. Investment A returns 10% with 90% probability, -50% with 10% probability. Investment B returns 5% with certainty. Investment C returns 100% with 20% probability, 0% with 80% probability. (1) Rank them by expected value. (2) Rank them by the Kelly criterion. (3) You have $10,000 your entire savings. Does this change your answer? Why? (4) Now you have $10,000,000. Does it change again? Derive the general principle.
Winner
Qwen 3 8B
openrouter
9.63
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.32
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 66 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Qwen 3 32B | Kimi K2.5 | Devstral Small | Gemma 3 27B | Llama 4 Scout | Phi-4 14B | Granite 4.0 Micro | Qwen 3 8B | Mistral Nemo 12B | Llama 3.1 8B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen 3 32B | — | · | 8.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 7.5 | · | 10.0 | · | 2.8 |
| Kimi K2.5 | · | — | · | · | 3.5 | · | 2.3 | · | · | · |
| Devstral Small | · | · | — | 9.6 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 |
| Gemma 3 27B | · | · | 9.4 | — | 7.0 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Llama 4 Scout | · | · | 10.0 | 10.0 | — | 9.4 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Phi-4 14B | · | · | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | — | 9.3 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| Granite 4.0 Micro | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 8.8 | — | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| Qwen 3 8B | · | · | 7.2 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 7.5 | — | 5.8 | 3.8 |
| Mistral Nemo 12B | · | · | 8.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 9.2 | — | 8.3 |
| Llama 3.1 8B | · | · | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | — |