reasoning
Mar 18, 2026EVAL-20260318-162600A disease affects 1 in 10,000 people. A test is 99% sensitive (true positive rate) and 99.5% specific (true negative rate). A patient tests positive. (1) What is the probability they have the disease? (2) If they test positive twice with independent tests, what is the probability? (3) A doctor says 'You tested positive, so you almost certainly have it.' Critique this reasoning. (4) Design a testing protocol that achieves >95% positive predictive value.
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.92
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 9.55
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 21 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | MiniMax M2.7 | MiniMax M2.5 | MiniMax M2.1 | MiniMax M2 | MiniMax M1 | MiniMax-01 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-5.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiniMax M2.7 | — | · | · | · | · | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | · | — | · | · | · | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M2.1 | · | · | — | · | · | 10.0 | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M2 | · | · | · | — | · | 9.4 | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M1 | · | · | · | · | — | 9.1 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax-01 | · | · | · | · | · | — | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | · | · | · | · | · | 8.3 | — | 9.8 |
| GPT-5.4 | · | · | · | · | · | 8.3 | 7.8 | — |