reasoning
Jan 14, 2026REASON-001You're given two sealed envelopes. You're told one contains twice as much money as the other, but you don't know which is which. You pick envelope A and find $100. You reason: "Envelope B either has $50 or $200. If I switch, I have a 50% chance of getting $50 and 50% chance of getting $200. Expected value of switching = 0.5($50) + 0.5($200) = $125. That's more than $100, so I should switch." But wait - this logic would apply no matter what amount you found. That can't be right. What's the flaw in this reasoning? Provide a rigorous explanation.
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.60
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.44
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 79 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Gemini 3.1 Pro | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus 4.6 | GPT-5.4 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 Flash | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | — | 8.8 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 7.7 | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 8.4 | — | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 8.7 | · |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 3.3 | 7.7 | — | 9.8 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 7.7 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 9.0 | — | 8.4 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 5.7 | · | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 5.8 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | — | 9.4 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 8.8 | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.4 | — | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.2 | · |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | — | 9.4 | 8.4 | · |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 4.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | · | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | — | 8.4 | · |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 7.5 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 8.7 | — |