← Evaluations/EVAL-20260402-152445
reasoning
Jan 14, 2026REASON-001

You're given two sealed envelopes. You're told one contains twice as much money as the other, but you don't know which is which. You pick envelope A and find $100. You reason: "Envelope B either has $50 or $200. If I switch, I have a 50% chance of getting $50 and 50% chance of getting $200. Expected value of switching = 0.5($50) + 0.5($200) = $125. That's more than $100, so I should switch." But wait - this logic would apply no matter what amount you found. That can't be right. What's the flaw in this reasoning? Provide a rigorous explanation.

Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.60
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.44
results.json report.mdFull dataset (CSV) →
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 79 judgments
OPEN DATA
Judge ↓ / Respondent →Gemini 3.1 ProDeepSeek V4Claude Opus 4.6GPT-5.4MiMo-V2-FlashGrok 4.20Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-OSS-120BGemini 2.5 FlashMiniMax M2.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro8.88.910.09.48.610.04.57.7·
DeepSeek V48.49.79.79.19.79.79.78.7·
Claude Opus 4.63.37.79.87.29.29.47.37.7·
GPT-5.43.37.89.08.49.38.75.7··
MiMo-V2-Flash5.89.09.49.89.49.89.88.8·
Grok 4.206.28.78.78.88.48.78.88.2·
Claude Sonnet 4.64.58.29.89.08.89.09.48.4·
GPT-OSS-120B4.78.48.4·8.48.48.48.4·
Gemini 2.5 Flash7.58.89.19.88.89.79.79.7·
MiniMax M2.54.28.88.49.88.38.79.09.48.7