reasoning
Jan 28, 2026REASON-003Estimate how many piano tuners there are in Chicago. Show your reasoning step by step, including: 1. All assumptions you make 2. How you derived each number 3. Sensitivity analysis (what if your assumptions are wrong?) 4. Final estimate with confidence interval
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.07
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.10
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 80 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Gemini 3.1 Pro | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus 4.6 | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | MiMo-V2-Flash | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 Flash | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | — | 8.8 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 6.0 | — | 9.1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | · |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 1.6 | 7.8 | — | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 8.9 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 8.2 | — | 8.6 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 8.4 | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.7 | — | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 8.7 | · |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 1.4 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | — | 8.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 2.2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | — | 9.4 | 9.0 | · |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 3.3 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | — | 8.3 | · |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | · | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 10.0 | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.4 | — |