reasoning
Apr 02, 2026REASON-012A disease affects 1 in 10,000 people. A test for the disease is 99% sensitive (true positive rate) and 99.5% specific (true negative rate). A patient tests positive. (1) What is the probability they have the disease? (2) If they test positive twice with independent tests, what is the probability? (3) A doctor says 'You tested positive, so you almost certainly have it.' Critique this reasoning. (4) Design a testing protocol that achieves >95% positive predictive value.
Winner
DeepSeek V4
openrouter
8.93
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 7.92
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 48 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | DeepSeek V4 | MiMo-V2-Flash | GPT-OSS-120B | Claude Opus 4.6 | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | MiniMax M2.5 | Gemini 3.1 Pro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 | — | · | · | · | · | · | · | 8.1 | 8.1 | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 9.4 | — | 8.6 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 2.6 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 9.1 | · | — | 8.1 | 9.1 | · | 8.8 | · | · | 3.2 |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 7.8 | · | · | — | · | · | 9.4 | 1.3 | · | · |
| GPT-5.4 | 8.6 | · | · | · | — | · | · | · | · | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | — | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 1.1 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 8.4 | · | · | 9.0 | 9.8 | · | — | · | · | 1.6 |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 10.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | — | 9.0 | 8.4 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 9.4 | · | · | 9.7 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 9.8 | · | — | 1.6 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | — |