reasoning
Apr 02, 2026REASON-013Sleeping Beauty is told: 'We'll flip a coin. If heads, we wake you once (Monday). If tails, we wake you twice (Monday and Tuesday) with memory erased between wakings. Each time you wake, we'll ask: what is your credence that the coin landed heads?' (1) Is the answer 1/2 (halfer position) or 1/3 (thirder position)? (2) Argue for both positions rigorously. (3) What if we change the experiment to 1 waking for heads and 1,000,000 wakings for tails?
Winner
Grok 4.20
openrouter
8.90
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.07
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 88 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | DeepSeek V4 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Claude Opus 4.6 | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | MiMo-V2-Flash | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 Flash | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 | — | 8.4 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 9.3 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 5.8 | — | 8.7 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 9.4 | · | 6.5 | 9.4 |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | — | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 8.6 |
| GPT-5.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 7.7 | — | 7.8 | · | 8.2 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 8.0 |
| Grok 4.20 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 8.8 | — | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.7 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | — | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 8.6 |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 8.4 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | — | 9.4 | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 5.8 | 3.8 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 7.4 | — | 6.7 | 8.3 |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 8.8 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 8.8 | — | 9.4 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 7.7 | — |