reasoning
Apr 02, 2026REASON-015A superintelligent predictor offers you two boxes. Box A is transparent and contains $1,000. Box B is opaque. The predictor has already either put $1,000,000 in Box B (if it predicted you'd take only Box B) or left it empty (if it predicted you'd take both). The predictor has been right 99% of the time. Do you take only Box B or both boxes? Argue for both positions (one-boxing vs two-boxing) and explain which decision theory each relies on.
Winner
Claude Opus 4.6
openrouter
9.26
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.80
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 79 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Gemini 3.1 Pro | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus 4.6 | GPT-OSS-120B | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Gemini 2.5 Flash | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | — | 7.6 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 9.7 | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 9.4 | — | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.4 | · | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.4 | · |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 7.7 | 7.6 | — | 8.2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 7.8 | · |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 7.5 | 6.5 | 8.4 | — | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 8.1 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | — | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.0 | — | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.7 | · |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | — | 8.3 | 8.3 | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | — | · | · |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 9.4 | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.4 | — |