reasoning
Apr 02, 2026REASON-019You must choose between three investments. Investment A returns 10% with 90% probability, -50% with 10% probability. Investment B returns 5% with certainty. Investment C returns 100% with 20% probability, 0% with 80% probability. (1) Rank them by expected value. (2) Rank them by the Kelly criterion. (3) You have $10,000 — your entire savings. Does this change your answer? Why? (4) Now you have $10,000,000. Does it change again? Derive the general principle.
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.37
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 7.15
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 87 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Gemini 3.1 Pro | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus 4.6 | Grok 4.20 | GPT-5.4 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | MiMo-V2-Flash | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 Flash | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | — | 5.6 | 8.3 | · | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 9.0 |
| DeepSeek V4 | 8.3 | — | 9.7 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 9.4 |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 1.6 | 5.8 | — | 6.7 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Grok 4.20 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 8.8 | — | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 7.6 |
| GPT-5.4 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.0 | — | 7.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 6.3 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | · | — | 4.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 3.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.4 | — | 4.8 | 8.0 | 8.8 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 2.8 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 8.8 | · | — | 6.5 | 8.6 |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 9.0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 7.7 | — | 9.0 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 2.1 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 8.4 | — |