reasoning
Apr 02, 2026REASON-027If you assume your birth rank among all humans who will ever live is randomly selected, and 100 billion humans have lived so far, then you should predict total humans ≈ 200 billion (50% chance you're in the second half). This implies humanity ends within a few centuries. (1) Is this reasoning valid? (2) What assumptions does it require? (3) Nick Bostrom's Self-Sampling Assumption vs Self-Indication Assumption — which is more reasonable and why?
Winner
Claude Sonnet 4.6
openrouter
9.12
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 7.92
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 80 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | DeepSeek V4 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Claude Opus 4.6 | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 Flash | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 | — | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 8.4 | — | 8.4 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 7.0 | · | — | 9.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.0 | · | 9.7 | 7.0 |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 7.3 | — | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 0.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
| GPT-5.4 | 7.8 | · | 5.5 | 9.0 | — | 7.3 | 8.8 | · | 8.0 | 6.3 |
| Grok 4.20 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | — | 8.8 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 7.8 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 8.0 | · | 7.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.2 | — | · | 8.4 | 7.8 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 8.0 | · | 5.7 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 7.7 | · | — | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 9.0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 7.5 | — | 8.8 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 8.2 | · | 6.9 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 8.2 | · | 8.0 | — |