analysis
Apr 03, 2026ANALYSIS-023A company wants to acquire a startup for $50M. The startup claims $5M ARR growing 100% YoY, 85% gross margins, net retention 130%. During due diligence, you discover: (1) 40% of revenue is from a single customer, (2) the 'ARR' includes one-time implementation fees, (3) three of five engineers have unvested equity and might leave. What's the real valuation? What deal terms would protect the acquirer?
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.08
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.34
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 88 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | DeepSeek V4 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Claude Opus 4.6 | Grok 4.20 | GPT-5.4 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 3 | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 | — | 9.6 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 8.3 | — | 7.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 7.4 | 9.8 | — | 7.3 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.1 | — | 8.9 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Grok 4.20 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 7.8 | — | 8.6 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| GPT-5.4 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 8.6 | — | 8.0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.6 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.0 | — | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | · | 8.4 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | — | · | 8.0 |
| Gemini 3 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.8 | — | 9.6 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 | — |