analysis
Apr 03, 2026ANALYSIS-024A quantitative trading firm backtests a strategy: 15% annual return, Sharpe ratio 2.1, max drawdown 8%. They want to go live. (1) What could go wrong between backtest and live trading? List at least 5 risks. (2) The backtest used 5 years of data and tested 200 parameter combinations. Calculate the probability this outperformance is due to overfitting. (3) Design a live testing protocol that minimizes capital at risk while validating the strategy.
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.29
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 7.10
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 74 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Claude Opus 4.6 | GPT-5.4 | DeepSeek V4 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | Grok 4.20 | Gemini 3 | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-120B | — | 1.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | · | · |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | · | — | 7.3 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 7.3 | · | · |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 7.2 | 0.8 | — | 9.3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 0.5 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 5.0 | — | 6.0 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 7.0 | · | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | — | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 8.3 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 8.8 | — | · | 9.0 | 8.2 | · |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 8.2 | — | 8.8 | · | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 6.8 | · | 8.6 | — | 6.0 | · |
| Gemini 3 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | — |