reasoning
Jan 28, 2026REASON-003Estimate how many piano tuners there are in Chicago. Show your reasoning step by step, including: 1. All assumptions you make 2. How you derived each number 3. Sensitivity analysis (what if your assumptions are wrong?) 4. Final estimate with confidence interval
Winner
Claude Opus 4.5
Anthropic
9.52
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.94
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 100 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | GPT-OSS-120B | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Gemini 3 | DeepSeek V3.2 | Claude Opus 4.5 | Gemini 3 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | OLMo Think | Grok 3 (Direct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-120B | — | 9.2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 8.8 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 9.6 | — | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 9.4 |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 9.6 | 9.6 | — | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 9.6 |
| Gemini 3 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | — | 9.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 9.8 |
| DeepSeek V3.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | — | 9.4 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 9.4 |
| Claude Opus 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.4 | — | 0.0 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 9.0 |
| Gemini 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 7.5 | — | 7.5 | 9.0 |
| OLMo Think | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0.0 |
| Grok 3 (Direct) | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | — |