reasoning
Mar 17, 2026EVAL-20260317-023315A disease affects 1 in 10,000 people. A test is 99% sensitive (true positive rate) and 99.5% specific (true negative rate). A patient tests positive. (1) What is the probability they have the disease? (2) If they test positive twice with independent tests, what is the probability? (3) A doctor says 'You tested positive, so you almost certainly have it.' Critique this reasoning. (4) Design a testing protocol that achieves >95% positive predictive value.
Winner
Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B
openrouter
10.00
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 9.80
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 24 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Qwen 3 8B | Qwen 3 32B | Qwen 3 Coder Next | Qwen 3.5 27B | Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B | Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B | Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen 3 8B | — | · | 9.6 | 9.3 | · | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3 32B | 9.8 | — | 10.0 | 10.0 | · | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3 Coder Next | 10.0 | · | — | 10.0 | · | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 27B | 10.0 | · | 9.2 | — | · | · | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B | 9.8 | · | 8.7 | 10.0 | — | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B | 10.0 | · | · | 10.0 | · | — | 9.8 |
| Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B | · | · | · | · | · | · | — |