reasoning
Mar 17, 2026EVAL-20260317-025517You must choose between three investments. Investment A returns 10% with 90% probability, -50% with 10% probability. Investment B returns 5% with certainty. Investment C returns 100% with 20% probability, 0% with 80% probability. (1) Rank them by expected value. (2) Rank them by the Kelly criterion. (3) You have $10,000 your entire savings. Does this change your answer? Why? (4) Now you have $10,000,000. Does it change again? Derive the general principle.
Winner
Qwen 3.5 27B
openrouter
9.96
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.86
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 22 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | Qwen 3 8B | Qwen 3 32B | Qwen 3 Coder Next | Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B | Qwen 3.5 27B | Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B | Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen 3 8B | — | 10.0 | 9.3 | · | 10.0 | · | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3 32B | 7.0 | — | 7.9 | · | 10.0 | · | · |
| Qwen 3 Coder Next | 8.2 | 10.0 | — | · | 10.0 | · | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 35B-A3B | · | · | 5.5 | — | 9.8 | · | · |
| Qwen 3.5 27B | · | · | 5.3 | · | — | · | 9.8 |
| Qwen 3.5 122B-A10B | 9.8 | 9.8 | 5.1 | · | · | — | 10.0 |
| Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B | · | 8.4 | 5.8 | · | 10.0 | · | — |