reasoning
Mar 18, 2026EVAL-20260318-163203You must choose between three investments. Investment A returns 10% with 90% probability, -50% with 10% probability. Investment B returns 5% with certainty. Investment C returns 100% with 20% probability, 0% with 80% probability. (1) Rank them by expected value. (2) Rank them by the Kelly criterion. (3) You have $10,000 your entire savings. Does this change your answer? Why? (4) Now you have $10,000,000. Does it change again? Derive the general principle.
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.71
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.79
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 21 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | MiniMax M2.7 | MiniMax M2.5 | MiniMax M2.1 | MiniMax M2 | MiniMax M1 | MiniMax-01 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-5.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiniMax M2.7 | — | · | · | · | · | 9.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| MiniMax M2.5 | · | — | · | · | · | 7.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M2.1 | · | · | — | · | · | 9.0 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| MiniMax M2 | · | · | · | — | · | 8.3 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| MiniMax M1 | · | · | · | · | — | 7.0 | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| MiniMax-01 | · | · | · | · | · | — | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | · | · | · | · | · | 5.8 | — | 8.8 |
| GPT-5.4 | · | · | · | · | · | 4.3 | 7.6 | — |