reasoning
Feb 11, 2026REASON-005A variant of the Monty Hall problem: There are 100 doors. Behind one is a car, behind the others are goats. You pick door #1. The host, who knows where the car is, then opens 98 doors that don't have the car (and aren't your door), leaving door #1 (yours) and door #57. 1. What's the probability the car is behind door #57? 2. Should you switch? 3. Now suppose after opening 98 doors, the host offers you $10,000 to NOT switch. At what car value would you be indifferent? 4. What if the host doesn't know where the car is and just happened to open 98 goat doors by chance? Does this change your answer?
Winner
GPT-5.4
openrouter
9.38
WINNER SCORE
matrix avg: 8.32
10×10 Judgment Matrix · 71 judgments
OPEN DATA
| Judge ↓ / Respondent → | GPT-OSS-120B | Gemini 2.5 Flash | DeepSeek V4 | Claude Opus 4.6 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GPT-5.4 | Grok 4.20 | MiMo-V2-Flash | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | MiniMax M2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-120B | — | · | 9.1 | · | · | 9.1 | · | 9.3 | · | · |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 9.0 | — | 9.0 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.3 | · |
| DeepSeek V4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | — | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 | · |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | · | 8.2 | 9.2 | — | 4.3 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.7 | · |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | · | 6.7 | 9.4 | 8.0 | — | 8.5 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 5.5 | · |
| GPT-5.4 | · | 5.2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 2.3 | — | 9.1 | 9.0 | 6.5 | · |
| Grok 4.20 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 8.8 | — | 8.8 | 8.6 | · |
| MiMo-V2-Flash | 8.4 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | — | 9.0 | · |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | · | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 8.8 | — | · |
| MiniMax M2.5 | · | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 9.2 | — |